Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb3b1b991c1dbe81e7306b3ff139ae537edaf8dc03d183493ffe4cad0832f25c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grind Backof Grind Back, Mentality Monster
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Grind Back | 71c | 5,659$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,658.72 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea7…7fc0backed Mentality Monster | 29c | 1,400$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…416cbacked Mentality Monster | 29c | 1,153$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.71 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe3…ca9dbacked Mentality Monster | 34c | 1,046$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.21 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed Mentality Monster | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 211 | 0.5%1 W · 210 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…3cbebacked Mentality Monster | 29c | 999.99$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Grind Back | 74c | 999.98$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.99 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Mentality Monster | 31c | 991.12$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.25 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Grind Back | 78c | 734$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.84 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Mentality Monster | 21c | 568.76$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.44 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Mentality Monster | 25c | 547.23$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.42 | 301 | 38.9%117 W · 184 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed Mentality Monster | 23c | 500.28$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.06 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c1…0ddfbacked Mentality Monster | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Mentality Monster | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8494…814abacked Mentality Monster | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c27…97c2backed Mentality Monster | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Mentality Monster | 17c | 450$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Mentality Monster | 27c | 399.96$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.01 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Grind Back | 69c | 348.57$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed Grind Back | 75c | 306.52$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.63 | 410 | 56.8%233 W · 177 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Mentality Monster | 27c | 260.36$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Mentality Monster | 26c | 250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bac…d241backed Mentality Monster | 29c | 244.78$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.76 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Grind Back | 72c | 241.78$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 150 | 69.3%104 W · 46 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…04d4backed Mentality Monster | 28c | 240.87$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Mentality Monster | 26c | 240$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Mentality Monster | 29c | 212.07$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 268 | 43.7%117 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a77…e59dbacked Mentality Monster | 14c | 206$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 220 | 31.8%70 W · 150 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Mentality Monster | 27c | 175.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…c3cabacked Mentality Monster | 23c | 159.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 441 | 49.4%218 W · 223 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff7…4176backed Mentality Monster | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d28…ad7cbacked Mentality Monster | 24c | 147.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…d369backed Mentality Monster | 30c | 130.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Mentality Monster | 25c | 118.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Mentality Monster | 24c | 113$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…4f76backed Mentality Monster | 27c | 110.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 200 | 30.5%61 W · 139 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Mentality Monster | 28c | 101.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed Mentality Monster | 29c | 97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 335 | 49.9%167 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Mentality Monster | 29c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Mentality Monster | 22c | 67.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcb…9f08backed Mentality Monster | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69b7…ae1dbacked Grind Back | 78c | 63.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 74 | 71.6%53 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Grind Back | 76c | 62.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Grind Back | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Grind Back | 72c | 51.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Mentality Monster | 29c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Mentality Monster | 29c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed Mentality Monster | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…150bbacked Mentality Monster | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 592 | 54.1%320 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73c7…1ad3backed Grind Back | 73c | 31.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Grind Back | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1d…a420backed Grind Back | 71c | 24.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Grind Back | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Grind Back | 67c | 21.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Grind Back | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Grind Back | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedab…8926backed Grind Back | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239c…f7c2backed Grind Back | 73c | 13.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsGrind Back won
- Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 WinnerGrind Back won
- Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5)Grind Back won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.