TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Grind Backof Grind Back, Mentality Monster
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,803
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,920

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,803 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4133…165bbacked Mentality Monster35c5,800$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,001.261,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Grind Back71c5,639$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,638.541,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Grind Back66c2,000$1,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.0486659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Mentality Monster21c1,190$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.41,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Mentality Monster1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Mentality Monster31c989.12$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.6329243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Mentality Monster74c913.19$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.4154246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fe3…ca9dbacked Mentality Monster46c911.78$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.198944.9%40 W · 49 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed Mentality Monster11c800$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8815147.7%72 W · 79 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Mentality Monster13c721.54$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.231,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Mentality Monster21c702.12$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.6130138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xef88…d62cbacked Mentality Monster28c693.54$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.19757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+25.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Mentality Monster34c672.71$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.722,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Mentality Monster5c634$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7665625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Grind Back34c557.89$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.5814336.4%52 W · 91 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Grind Back48c541.44$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.589938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x09c1…0ddfbacked Mentality Monster29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1451729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x764a…83d3backed Mentality Monster29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1455653.6%30 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8494…814abacked Mentality Monster29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1451323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c27…97c2backed Mentality Monster29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1452835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x685f…c586backed Mentality Monster40c490.94$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.172548%12 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-16.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Grind Back74c449.98$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.4996245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Grind Back56c422.15$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.372,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed Mentality Monster27c411.24$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2620030.5%61 W · 139 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Grind Back54c381.55$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.0950247.6%239 W · 263 L+31.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Grind Back56c356.47$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.4746049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed Mentality Monster12c350$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4215639.1%61 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Grind Back64c346.89$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.521,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cd0…08f6backed Mentality Monster57c298.67$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.196147.5%29 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Mentality Monster24c290.94$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7057735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Grind Back48c290$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.125351.4%130 W · 123 L+23.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed Mentality Monster60c250$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15014661%89 W · 57 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Mentality Monster18c232$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0564547.8%308 W · 337 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Grind Back47c226$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.7469033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Grind Back47c220.63$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.8253538.5%206 W · 329 L-26.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Mentality Monster20c207.55$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6830844.8%138 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50f4…04d4backed Mentality Monster28c193.54$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1940%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Grind Back45c190$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.14337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Grind Back64c190$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.81,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d5b…1578backed Mentality Monster16c189.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.69239.1%36 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x316f…795abacked Grind Back50c181.57$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.3728336.4%103 W · 180 L+1.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Mentality Monster21c160$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.444149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Mentality Monster18c157.44$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6589238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Grind Back38c156.86$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.979341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Grind Back58c150$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6362841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked Grind Back51c137.25$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2554648.5%265 W · 281 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Mentality Monster24c131.58$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.178516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed Mentality Monster13c110$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.73053.3%16 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+56.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ca2…088ebacked Grind Back53c106$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.344742.6%20 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Mentality Monster17c103$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2466947.1%315 W · 354 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3145…f7c6backed Grind Back40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x590d…28f3backed Mentality Monster50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+54.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26c2…0cdfbacked Mentality Monster16c98.6$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2718652.2%97 W · 89 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c2b…1388backed Mentality Monster50c97.97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.988046.3%37 W · 43 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x214a…9cd3backed Grind Back53c94.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.251060%6 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffc4…b347backed Mentality Monster67c94.41$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.329466%194 W · 100 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Mentality Monster27c93.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3326445.1%119 W · 145 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Grind Back57c88.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.911,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d28…ad7cbacked Mentality Monster23c85.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203920.5%8 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc89…095cbacked Mentality Monster14c83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.533852.6%20 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8811…627cbacked Mentality Monster14c79.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.127964.6%51 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3906…25ffbacked Grind Back40c75.74$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.442100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1dcb…9f08backed Mentality Monster20c74.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-50.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Grind Back47c74$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2621748.8%106 W · 111 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc75…af4dbacked Grind Back45c64.92$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.49150.5%46 W · 45 L+12.5wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+23.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8a38…d420backed Mentality Monster20c64.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.992458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Mentality Monster21c61.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7595841.1%394 W · 564 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Mentality Monster18c60.49$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7569132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe83a…8355backed Mentality Monster25c56.21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.125149%25 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb41…2f4bbacked Grind Back57c55$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.84100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+112.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec61…f8a1backed Mentality Monster48c53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.292334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Mentality Monster27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.59952.5%52 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9d4…a3d5backed Grind Back45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.522954.6%125 W · 104 L-0.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Grind Back47c33.45$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.714940.9%61 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73c7…1ad3backed Grind Back73c31.21$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.435100%5 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked Grind Back37c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.959254.1%320 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedab…8926backed Grind Back65c29.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3912055%66 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Mentality Monster44c26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5616839.9%67 W · 101 L-9.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c1d…a420backed Grind Back73c23.08$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.231457.1%8 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x847c…9ff8backed Grind Back73c20.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.554557.8%26 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed Grind Back67c20.49$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.857659.2%45 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Grind Back70c18.08$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3881345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b26…f3efbacked Grind Back71c14.53$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9991…36b8backed Grind Back80c13.33$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.679658.3%56 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.