Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41afa53ef07e153278c263e6709f0b7749797c07fa56ba50e62b0a9a32ede86b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grind Backof Grind Back, Mentality Monster
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e3c…d370backed Grind Back | 77c | 3,019$2,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…1fb2backed Mentality Monster | 24c | 2,736$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.59 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Grind Back | 73c | 2,727$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.1 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Mentality Monster | 21c | 2,165$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.61 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed Mentality Monster | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 211 | 0.5%1 W · 210 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…3cbebacked Mentality Monster | 26c | 976.08$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.78 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Mentality Monster | 27c | 880$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.6 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Grind Back | 78c | 809.34$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.76 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Mentality Monster | 23c | 800.71$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.16 | 233 | 42.9%100 W · 133 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4a…3b84backed Grind Back | 79c | 800$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Mentality Monster | 27c | 684$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.68 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Mentality Monster | 27c | 600$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f0…971ebacked Mentality Monster | 23c | 582$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.86 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Mentality Monster | 9c | 514.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Mentality Monster | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c27…97c2backed Mentality Monster | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2776…4ecbbacked Grind Back | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Grind Back | 77c | 389.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Mentality Monster | 18c | 387.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Mentality Monster | 23c | 383.43$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.19 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…2d72backed Mentality Monster | 23c | 371.46$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Mentality Monster | 9c | 340.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 213 | 33.3%71 W · 142 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…c3cabacked Mentality Monster | 17c | 308$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 441 | 49.4%218 W · 223 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…13dabacked Mentality Monster | 23c | 291$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bac…d241backed Mentality Monster | 24c | 279$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…0a08backed Grind Back | 80c | 265.53$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 181 | 52.5%95 W · 86 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Grind Back | 75c | 250$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefbc…b344backed Grind Back | 75c | 246$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Mentality Monster | 8c | 237.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Grind Back | 77c | 227.27$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.27 | 150 | 69.3%104 W · 46 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ca…8f43backed Mentality Monster | 23c | 161$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Mentality Monster | 20c | 156.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed Grind Back | 79c | 155.93$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Grind Back | 80c | 149.29$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…04d4backed Mentality Monster | 22c | 144.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Mentality Monster | 23c | 143.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…b30dbacked Mentality Monster | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed Mentality Monster | 23c | 139.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…4f76backed Mentality Monster | 23c | 130.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 200 | 30.5%61 W · 139 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed Mentality Monster | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 408 | 44.1%180 W · 228 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…32a5backed Mentality Monster | 9c | 111$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…900bbacked Mentality Monster | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa718…baf1backed Mentality Monster | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x257e…ca61backed Grind Back | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Mentality Monster | 27c | 97.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f67…ba88backed Mentality Monster | 19c | 88.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Mentality Monster | 14c | 83.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 301 | 38.9%117 W · 184 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Mentality Monster | 24c | 79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Mentality Monster | 25c | 76.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 131 | 48.1%63 W · 68 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…0a0bbacked Mentality Monster | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…fbbbbacked Mentality Monster | 23c | 73.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Grind Back | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Mentality Monster | 17c | 59.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad6…c1c4backed Mentality Monster | 26c | 57.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Mentality Monster | 22c | 49.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Grind Back | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Grind Back | 74c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 354 | 30.5%108 W · 246 L | -27.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed Grind Back | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 145 | 66.2%96 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Grind Back | 65c | 20.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b86…5552backed Grind Back | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 WinnerGrind Back won
- Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 WinnerGrind Back won
- Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5)Grind Back won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.