Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Karen Khachanov vs Kamil Majchrzak
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb4fab6d865c90703df4b80e167bc843ced21c4c3d64abb1c85260e1c398ef20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Majchrzakof Khachanov, Majchrzak
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Majchrzak | 17c | 8,666$1,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,170.43 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbc…689fbacked Khachanov | 80c | 8,440$6,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,712.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 78cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Majchrzak | 11c | 7,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,200.39 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Khachanov | 78c | 6,512$5,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,093.08 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Majchrzak | 20c | 5,104$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,084.4 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Majchrzak | 20c | 4,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,219.99 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Majchrzak | 21c | 2,280$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,801.52 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Majchrzak | 21c | 2,110$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,674.5 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Majchrzak | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Majchrzak | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,619.99 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Majchrzak | 15c | 1,632$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.73 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Majchrzak | 28c | 1,560$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.09 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Majchrzak | 19c | 1,232$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.08 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0447…60abbacked Khachanov | 80c | 1,162$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.52 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Majchrzak | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Majchrzak | 21c | 893$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.47 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Majchrzak | 17c | 831$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.73 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…5d9ebacked Khachanov | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…c116backed Majchrzak | 20c | 662.85$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.63 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Khachanov | 60c | 646.93$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.09 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…f5ffbacked Khachanov | 78c | 642.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.01 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Majchrzak | 34c | 603.36$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.16 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Majchrzak | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Majchrzak | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Majchrzak | 18c | 499.97$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.98 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x431b…1d9cbacked Khachanov | 79c | 457.34$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.3 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…1115backed Majchrzak | 15c | 433.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +75%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Majchrzak | 21c | 399.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.99 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…e5f7backed Khachanov | 76c | 397.31$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Majchrzak | 20c | 386.61$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.63 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Majchrzak | 23c | 330$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.51 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Majchrzak | 8c | 322.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.57 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Majchrzak | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Khachanov | 80c | 250.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Majchrzak | 5c | 250$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +84%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Khachanov | 63c | 249.81$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.63 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1484…cafebacked Khachanov | 67c | 236.03$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.14 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Majchrzak | 19c | 202$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.62 | 158 | 32.9%52 W · 106 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…e617backed Majchrzak | 18c | 201.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.6 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e67…91b0backed Majchrzak | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Khachanov | 65c | 154.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Majchrzak | 39c | 152$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21cd…e7aabacked Majchrzak | 19c | 109.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.55 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Majchrzak | 19c | 105$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Majchrzak | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6677…4ea3backed Majchrzak | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Khachanov | 79c | 83.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Khachanov | 74c | 65.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Majchrzak | 19c | 55.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 360 | 40%144 W · 216 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e1…9c10backed Khachanov | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Khachanov | 62c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Majchrzak | 25c | 44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4045…3307backed Khachanov | 70c | 43.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…27fbbacked Khachanov | 80c | 36.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Khachanov | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x455c…1c25backed Khachanov | 80c | 32.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Khachanov | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff8…cd00backed Khachanov | 80c | 29.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…f688backed Khachanov | 80c | 28.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Khachanov | 46c | 27.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.