South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CDP Junior FC vs. Club Cerro Porteño end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb6836db4a7c7802188defbef6dbc61a6c78a82f11205042cbf0a731c0f5f0a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e9…239bbacked Yes | 31c | 1,296$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 71c | 1,059$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.2 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa00…f736backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7e…6d00backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 70c | 962.48$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.74 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 608.13$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.74 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 75c | 591.28$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.64 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed No | 69c | 402.75$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.85 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 29c | 345$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 25c | 322.74$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.95 | 200 | 22.5%45 W · 155 L | -13.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 288 | 51.7%149 W · 139 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 17c | 282.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed No | 71c | 240$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed No | 69c | 196$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 70c | 171.31$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Yes | 30c | 167.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed No | 71c | 160$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 213 | 58.7%125 W · 88 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…c66ebacked Yes | 30c | 117.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Yes | 20c | 102.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Yes | 29c | 87.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Yes | 29c | 86.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 117 | 63.2%74 W · 43 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed No | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 220 | 58.6%129 W · 91 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 70c | 73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 69c | 68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 189 | 59.3%112 W · 77 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…3409backed Yes | 29c | 56.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes | 30c | 53.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 69c | 51.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 29c | 49.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 108 | 26.9%29 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed No | 74c | 49.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…5c50backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf5…52adbacked Yes | 30c | 45.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed No | 69c | 45.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 242 | 57%138 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 72c | 43.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No | 71c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 249 | 56.6%141 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 70c | 40.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 153 | 59.5%91 W · 62 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 77c | 38.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 62c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 71c | 36.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 290 | 53.8%156 W · 134 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 30c | 35.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed No | 71c | 34.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed No | 73c | 30.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked No | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 130 | 62.3%81 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422f…da1abacked No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa555…7594backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f0…1229backed No | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CDP Junior FC vs. Club Cerro Porteño end in a draw?this page
- Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-05-07?No won
- Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-05-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.