MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb7a79f0f126171cb02f80ecd4c4a4982b2993869ee446f9aad78ecdaba05bfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Under | 67c | 8,000$5,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,359.99 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 3,830$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,529.01 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 32c | 3,017$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,046.36 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…61e8backed Over | 53c | 1,944$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.49 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 57c | 1,090$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.88 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 45c | 1,075$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.17 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 984.62$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.92 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Under | 43c | 700$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 45c | 661.25$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.78 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 653.31$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.47 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Over | 53c | 458.39$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.44 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 49c | 395.52$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.8 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 48c | 313.68$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.79 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 55c | 273.71$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.17 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Over | 51c | 216$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.84 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 47c | 177.77$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.55 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 49c | 134.95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.52 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 46c | 125$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 30c | 123.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 27c | 119.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 47c | 98.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 53c | 90.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 77c | 87.03$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 54c | 72.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 54c | 72.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Over | 54c | 72.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 54c | 72.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Over | 54c | 72.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 54c | 72.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 52c | 71.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 56c | 69.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x015d…7bc7backed Under | 49c | 61.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52cb…4007backed Over | 53c | 52.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcee7…2417backed Under | 48c | 51.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 68c | 50.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 44c | 45.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 57c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Over | 52c | 41.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Under | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 33c | 36.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed Over | 52c | 36.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 34c | 35.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 68c | 29.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec5…5923backed Over | 54c | 29.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 50c | 28.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Over | 54c | 27.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…73debacked Over | 53c | 26.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaed…5749backed Under | 65c | 24.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 46c | 24.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb5…6a88backed Under | 47c | 24.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 68c | 16.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit TigersSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.