MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87da830f06e179f333e10e9da1f77fc8b69e1482279b521e09bd281ca9fe6c30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ae1…9fadbacked Over | 47c | 10,123$4,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,757.9 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 3,061$1,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.26 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 53c | 2,936$1,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 58c | 2,757$1,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.52 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 49c | 2,493$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.45 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 1,967$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.46 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 53c | 1,913$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.07 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 38c | 1,081$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.82 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de1…ff6bbacked Over | 48c | 1,009$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 52c | 902.54$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.87 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 65c | 749.24$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.64 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Under | 51c | 739.04$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.13 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 50c | 734.34$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.86 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 49c | 593.51$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.82 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 58c | 500.36$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.82 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 52c | 478.91$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.75 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 52c | 459.34$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.35 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Under | 53c | 320.69$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.73 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 58c | 201.68$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.71 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Under | 52c | 198.74$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.39 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 26c | 190$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 66c | 186.73$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.1 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 39c | 175.46$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.02 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 154.07$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Under | 55c | 120.3$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.13 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 53c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8924…3b00backed Over | 48c | 98.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 42c | 97.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 69c | 70.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Under | 55c | 63.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 53c | 60.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Over | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 60c | 48.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Under | 51c | 48.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Over | 47c | 48.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…94bebacked Under | 39c | 46.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdba8…5d91backed Over | 48c | 46.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 226 | 50.4%114 W · 112 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Under | 57c | 39.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Over | 43c | 33.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Over | 44c | 32.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 45c | 31.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 42c | 28.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 55c | 24.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 51c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 55c | 24.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb568…14d4backed Under | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit TigersSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.