Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcba7ed187964edad6e25aa09d5a6218460e246d74ad8cecc102e503b29d5efcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 9c | 602.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 59c | 271.97$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.55 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd211…628bbacked Yes | 37c | 125.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 84.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 43c | 81.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 32c | 78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed No | 64c | 75.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 60c | 53.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 72c | 53.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 28c | 52.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 39c | 49.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 37c | 48.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 47.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 43c | 46.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 65c | 46.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…88c9backed Yes | 28c | 44.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked Yes | 43c | 42.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 36c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 41.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 35c | 37.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 36.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 56c | 32.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c73…4ca6backed Yes | 43c | 32.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 61c | 32.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 68c | 30.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 30.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 75c | 30.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 41c | 27.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 44c | 26.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 72c | 26.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 74c | 24.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 64c | 24.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 57c | 20.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 65c | 16.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.