Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94832b4b349f53122fde48c8fd2695b43079fdf81e223eb712807580ee526bce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked No | 7c | 534.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 61c | 330.95$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.64 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 317.86$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.75 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 71c | 285.61$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.78 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 39c | 266.31$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.35 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 252.1$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.77 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 48c | 183.24$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.77 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 29c | 154.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.05 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 41c | 123.19$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.37 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 104.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 44c | 100.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 37c | 98.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 91.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.95 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…88ddbacked Yes | 27c | 78.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 70c | 69.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 29c | 64.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 28c | 58.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 57.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed No | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 44c | 44.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 72c | 42.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2087…35e5backed Yes | 29c | 41.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 39.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01bf…886ebacked No | 75c | 39.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 67c | 35.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 43c | 34.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 39c | 32.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 29.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed No | 72c | 28.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked No | 57c | 27.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 54c | 27.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 78c | 26.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 68c | 24.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 24.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…1676backed No | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked No | 76c | 19.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 53c | 19.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 64c | 19.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 18.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10bd…8ff6backed No | 78c | 17.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked No | 72c | 14.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.