NHL · resolved market
Spread: Flyers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbfd314d1f07fe467403c81272806e47be90e3ff317c99b35f23b8ac948080dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flyersof Flyers, Capitals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Capitals | 65c | 2,803$1,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,821.86 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Flyers | 35c | 2,803$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,821.86 | 186 | 41.9%78 W · 108 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…0841backed Capitals | 69c | 1,302$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.78 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Flyers | 31c | 925.84$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.11 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde8c…6307backed Capitals | 34c | 635.4$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.4 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Flyers | 31c | 577.63$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.56 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Capitals | 55c | 373.29$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.16 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Flyers | 32c | 372.55$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.76 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Capitals | 69c | 348.26$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Flyers | 46c | 343.04$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.15 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Flyers | 47c | 284.09$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.58 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Flyers | 66c | 241.62$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.88 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Capitals | 70c | 215.54$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Flyers | 65c | 183.86$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…f8a0backed Capitals | 57c | 180.72$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Capitals | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 103 | 67%69 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Flyers | 33c | 144.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Flyers | 33c | 141$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.47 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Capitals | 68c | 102.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Flyers | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa404…3ee0backed Capitals | 67c | 89.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.6wins | -0.52per pick | 66cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Capitals | 65c | 77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Capitals | 69c | 73.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Flyers | 50c | 57.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Flyers | 33c | 56.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked Flyers | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53aa…07fcbacked Flyers | 32c | 49.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Capitals | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…b0d3backed Flyers | 34c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Flyers | 33c | 39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Flyers | 34c | 39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…d7e9backed Capitals | 67c | 38.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Capitals | 67c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Capitals | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cab…1d6cbacked Flyers | 35c | 31.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…7097backed Capitals | 67c | 31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Flyers | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Flyers | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Capitals | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Capitals | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4918…3db7backed Capitals | 67c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Capitals | 67c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Capitals | 65c | 25.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ee…012fbacked Capitals | 67c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…d6cbbacked Capitals | 67c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)this page
- Capitals vs. FlyersFlyers won
- Capitals vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.