NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd09a56f100771a7acd59354646f7096097b4ad791317e63a371f672f16fe960b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Over | 47c | 16,698$7,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,864.94 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 53c | 12,876$6,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,051.94 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 7,000$3,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,290 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e4…442abacked Under | 53c | 6,745$3,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,169.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 53c | 3,801$2,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,786.39 | 367 | 48%176 W · 191 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 47c | 3,226$1,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,516.22 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Over | 46c | 2,754$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.77 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34d…120cbacked Over | 47c | 2,576$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 52c | 2,399$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.1 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…90bfbacked Over | 47c | 2,398$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 1,942$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.56 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d25…49debacked Over | 47c | 1,772$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 47c | 1,300$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 54c | 1,181$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.37 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 37c | 1,180$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.3 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf38b…b601backed Over | 49c | 1,021$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Under | 53c | 603.77$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.77 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +5.9wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…e0edbacked Under | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 53c | 246.89$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.04 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 67c | 229.32$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.78 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 140 | 65.7%92 W · 48 L | +13.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 137.11$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 53c | 127.51$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 53c | 127.18$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 49c | 118.34$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Under | 52c | 97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…5780backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 52c | 92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ac…2108backed Under | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Over | 47c | 78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 42c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +17.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Under | 57c | 52.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 101 | 67.3%68 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 60c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…c3e2backed Under | 54c | 43.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked Under | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cab…1d6cbacked Over | 48c | 34.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Over | 47c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…e26cbacked Under | 53c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Under | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 177 | 54.8%97 W · 80 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Over | 48c | 26.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5this page
- Capitals vs. FlyersFlyers won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.