Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc4f4bd388f842f21e28c942cf9e0c29401ac2502555adf5ea9c115bcd26ddfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Tundra Esports, Yakult Brothers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,356 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c29…afadbacked Tundra Esports | 76c | 19,000$14,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,559.98 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18bb…e5cdbacked Yakult Brothers | 21c | 8,380$1,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,783.93 | 130 | 20%26 W · 104 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Yakult Brothers | 22c | 5,515$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.88 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Tundra Esports | 78c | 5,415$4,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.89 | 201 | 56.7%114 W · 87 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Yakult Brothers | 8c | 4,782$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.34 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yakult Brothers | 24c | 4,505$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.18 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Yakult Brothers | 24c | 4,417$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.1 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62f2…07f8backed Tundra Esports | 76c | 3,583$2,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.88 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Yakult Brothers | 23c | 2,794$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.65 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Yakult Brothers | 19c | 2,735$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.65 | 130 | 45.4%59 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Tundra Esports | 79c | 2,718$2,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.75 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…a603backed Tundra Esports | 78c | 2,706$2,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.29 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Yakult Brothers | 24c | 2,638$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.61 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Yakult Brothers | 19c | 2,447$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.98 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c01…8c6cbacked Yakult Brothers | 11c | 1,985$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.52 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Yakult Brothers | 24c | 1,834$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.39 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yakult Brothers | 24c | 1,716$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.65 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Tundra Esports | 79c | 1,600$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Tundra Esports | 78c | 1,580$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.6 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked Yakult Brothers | 24c | 1,327$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.61 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Tundra Esports | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.7 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Yakult Brothers | 20c | 837.14$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.47 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Yakult Brothers | 7c | 836.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Yakult Brothers | 24c | 800$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x410d…d831backed Tundra Esports | 78c | 767$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.42 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Yakult Brothers | 23c | 714$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.28 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62c7…d64fbacked Yakult Brothers | 10c | 698$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fca…e8edbacked Tundra Esports | 74c | 599.99$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Tundra Esports | 80c | 437.5$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1528…e141backed Yakult Brothers | 23c | 399.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yakult Brothers | 23c | 394.52$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.71 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yakult Brothers | 24c | 365.01$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Yakult Brothers | 20c | 350$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Yakult Brothers | 22c | 326.01$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.72 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Yakult Brothers | 24c | 320$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Tundra Esports | 80c | 313.5$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…57b5backed Tundra Esports | 76c | 299.07$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.11 | 348 | 60.1%209 W · 139 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Yakult Brothers | 18c | 297$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a96…3087backed Tundra Esports | 80c | 274.16$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.78 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a0…1be2backed Tundra Esports | 79c | 245$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…968cbacked Yakult Brothers | 22c | 240$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 200 | 43.5%87 W · 113 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…ac6dbacked Yakult Brothers | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Yakult Brothers | 24c | 204.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…d00abacked Yakult Brothers | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 251 | 47.4%119 W · 132 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed Yakult Brothers | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 335 | 49.9%167 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yakult Brothers | 19c | 198.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 126 | 42.1%53 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked Tundra Esports | 78c | 196.31$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Yakult Brothers | 28c | 195.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0b…94d1backed Yakult Brothers | 28c | 169.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Yakult Brothers | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Yakult Brothers | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…9cf1backed Yakult Brothers | 24c | 133.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Tundra Esports | 77c | 130.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Tundra Esports | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Yakult Brothers | 24c | 115$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…97b4backed Tundra Esports | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 154 | 65.6%101 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Yakult Brothers | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yakult Brothers | 21c | 86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…f15cbacked Tundra Esports | 78c | 86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd49…515dbacked Tundra Esports | 80c | 77.06$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…e183backed Tundra Esports | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 249 | 55.4%138 W · 111 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Yakult Brothers | 18c | 62.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Yakult Brothers | 20c | 54.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yakult Brothers | 22c | 49.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…224cbacked Yakult Brothers | 27c | 45.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c50…ad9cbacked Tundra Esports | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Tundra Esports | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 240 | 26.7%64 W · 176 L | -30.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…b54abacked Tundra Esports | 75c | 28.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13aa…88d6backed Tundra Esports | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 187 | 69%129 W · 58 L | +20.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0cec…921abacked Tundra Esports | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3a…f788backed Tundra Esports | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4583…d36fbacked Tundra Esports | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e67…0f23backed Tundra Esports | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa6…dbd6backed Tundra Esports | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 229 | 61.1%140 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 WinnerYakult Brothers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.