MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc7d94857e1c1991f56beb7e41a41db52acb03e214c7faacbecee633077cba66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 3,503$1,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,781.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 51c | 2,409$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.11 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 50c | 1,349$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.39 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 62c | 1,260$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.58 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 51c | 1,133$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.92 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 60c | 700$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 27c | 697$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.68 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Over | 48c | 302.08$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 55c | 274.05$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.88 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 73c | 263.08$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 51c | 194.68$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 61c | 150.57$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 13c | 146.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 49c | 140$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed Over | 51c | 107.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 57c | 92.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 51c | 91.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 51c | 88.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 50c | 80.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 52c | 66.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 60c | 53.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Under | 50c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…d3dbbacked Over | 49c | 23.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 49c | 20.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.