MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37df2178e77e1e6ed786dd5eb3b1779dbda51e6b49063126bb6a9145e4989843
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 10,685$4,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,803.59 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 9,757$5,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,390.62 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf844…ee3cbacked Under | 18c | 1,619$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.55 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 35c | 1,320$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.09 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 56c | 1,157$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.14 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 69c | 793.6$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.14 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 40c | 644.7$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.88 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 44c | 635.16$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.47 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 59c | 472.67$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.79 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 60c | 441.56$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.71 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Under | 41c | 314.49$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.94 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Under | 41c | 314.49$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.94 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 44c | 299.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 39c | 214$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.46 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 71c | 190.55$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.82 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 55c | 142.33$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 56c | 117.86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 55c | 113.8$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 63c | 112.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…1849backed Over | 61c | 81.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 56c | 81.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9e…53c2backed Over | 62c | 63.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Under | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca6…9da8backed Under | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Over | 56c | 46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 38c | 45.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 41c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 61c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 61c | 27.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…0172backed Over | 79c | 25.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 46c | 25.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 59c | 23.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 59c | 23.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac2…4fd8backed Over | 56c | 22.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…92b6backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 61c | 18.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…b1aebacked Over | 76c | 17.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Over | 61c | 17.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.