MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf83969a5348a885f142150f8e1d368f49a06ad3655bcf6f3afb3dd59cd172b42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 71c | 1,455$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.44 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 38c | 1,228$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.91 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 815.04$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.22 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 24c | 812.5$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Houston Astros | 59c | 761.39$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.72 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Houston Astros | 56c | 699.99$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.99 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Los Angeles Angels | 38c | 545.51$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.85 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Houston Astros | 23c | 511.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.23 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 466$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.62 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 353.82$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.34 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Los Angeles Angels | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 179.48$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.89 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Houston Astros | 23c | 165.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.63 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros | 38c | 154.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.1 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Los Angeles Angels | 49c | 103.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Los Angeles Angels | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 56c | 99.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Houston Astros | 34c | 89.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Houston Astros | 27c | 85.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 34c | 71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…a547backed Houston Astros | 41c | 69.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 63.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Los Angeles Angels | 53c | 48.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 486 | 51.6%251 W · 235 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Los Angeles Angels | 51c | 47.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Houston Astros | 50c | 43.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…1376backed Houston Astros | 35c | 43.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Houston Astros | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Houston Astros | 29c | 39.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Angels | 65c | 38.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Los Angeles Angels | 46c | 30.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd9…8593backed Houston Astros | 35c | 28.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa158…acacbacked Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 27.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Los Angeles Angels | 49c | 25.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Los Angeles Angels | 65c | 23.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Houston Astros | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Los Angeles Angels | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,803 | 53.8%970 W · 833 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Houston Astros | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.