MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfeb89139f4c70b2666b3c02ffc82fcf39bdf8c9b26909aa9bba77db0f161a0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b4e…0232backed Under | 52c | 22,651$11,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,778.76 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Over | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c1…9f91backed Over | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,200 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 6,420$2,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,928.6 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 50c | 6,041$3,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,020.61 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 53c | 5,000$2,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,370 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 48c | 4,264$2,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,217.24 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 4,058$1,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,877.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Over | 49c | 2,956$1,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,507.45 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 49c | 2,415$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.5 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 1,620$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 52c | 1,555$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.4 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…5e3fbacked Over | 61c | 1,542$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.43 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 78c | 1,218$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.99 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 49c | 1,010$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.7 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 39c | 991$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.49 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 49c | 908.99$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.6 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 68c | 838$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.16 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 69c | 645$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.95 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 51c | 592$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.44 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 48c | 585$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.2 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 579.29$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.6 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf844…ee3cbacked Under | 39c | 542.13$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.43 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 382.73$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.96 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 43c | 379.42$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.84 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 51c | 348.9$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.4 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 78c | 301.97$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 295$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.4 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 69c | 272.49$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.95 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Over | 69c | 268.12$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.12 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 52c | 254.64$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.28 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 75c | 242.17$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 52c | 221.15$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…efddbacked Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 24c | 195.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 53c | 189$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.83 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 50c | 183.22$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.61 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 58c | 154.84$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.03 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 27c | 112.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 24c | 107.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 62c | 96.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 62c | 96.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 44c | 91.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 56c | 86.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Over | 52c | 79.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 48c | 78.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 45c | 67.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 69c | 64.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Under | 52c | 57.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 50c | 53.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5aa…e292backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 48c | 49.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 68c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453b…6660backed Under | 52c | 47.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed Over | 69c | 42.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 52c | 42.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 57c | 41.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 73c | 39.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…299abacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 33c | 36.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 69c | 32.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Under | 52c | 28.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 49c | 28.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 49c | 20.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…0172backed Over | 73c | 16.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.