MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e37d46beef17cfcb8348372ffa782355e5ba2dab12a5dfd96fdac83034f094e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Los Angeles Angels | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.05 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Houston Astros | 44c | 1,945$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.2 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 53c | 1,035$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.7 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 71c | 874.52$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.87 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 824.99$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Los Angeles Angels | 9c | 667.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.99 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Houston Astros | 79c | 449.66$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.23 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Los Angeles Angels | 22c | 405.43$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.81 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 51c | 334.12$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.07 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Houston Astros | 36c | 326$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.64 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 37c | 207.54$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Houston Astros | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Houston Astros | 66c | 171.21$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Los Angeles Angels | 19c | 125.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros | 43c | 117.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.94 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 104.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Houston Astros | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Los Angeles Angels | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Los Angeles Angels | 19c | 90.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Houston Astros | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 73.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Los Angeles Angels | 29c | 70.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Houston Astros | 39c | 48.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Houston Astros | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Houston Astros | 44c | 38.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 36.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 36.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca6…9da8backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Houston Astros | 56c | 30.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Houston Astros | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Houston Astros | 58c | 23.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Houston Astros | 72c | 15.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Houston Astros | 72c | 14.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.