TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,357
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,412

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,357 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29a5…7752backed Yes39c586.9$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.951050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No29c514.14$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.8389661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82e7…f552backed Yes23c508.15$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.9535441%145 W · 209 L-19.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No25c395.32$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.386,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes18c384.89$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.869,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x726e…aafbbacked Yes40c383.59$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.3123269%160 W · 72 L+23.7wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+27.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x07d6…64fbbacked No77c360.27$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.3621068.6%144 W · 66 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa5c…a240backed Yes41c357.44$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.1519552.8%103 W · 92 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No20c300.55$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8349543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed Yes58c290.55$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.0534050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54b3…f0bebacked No39c248.52$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968270.7%58 W · 24 L+7.0wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+9.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7581…2ca4backed Yes25c208.78$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.4220833.2%69 W · 139 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes17c202$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.184,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes19c195.39$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.4825946.3%120 W · 139 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7615…308abacked No12c191.09$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9918441.3%76 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No62c172$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.715,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes11c171.59$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.392,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes13c166.93$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.534533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc11…dadbbacked Yes13c154.29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.2915749%77 W · 80 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked No43c153.37$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1261365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No75c142.84$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes25c139.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.321,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes50c132.26$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6645130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No77c129.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011977.3%92 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10e0…92e4backed Yes76c126.71$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4727744%122 W · 155 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No60c121.82$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.681,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes64c118.59$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0949547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd53b…fc94backed No59c117.84$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.962560%15 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb7…943ebacked Yes22c106.27$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.364027.5%11 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+139.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed No53c102$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6622945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737647.4%36 W · 40 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes20c99.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.982,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes47c99.82$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3267633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes77c96.42$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1720662.1%128 W · 78 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No64c89$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.254,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No45c87.15$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.373,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe50e…45c5backed Yes43c84.75$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.531855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes21c79.14$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.522,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No78c77.18$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9997570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes75c76.78$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.464141.5%17 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc118…18e2backed Yes22c69.29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.3915346.4%71 W · 82 L+26.2wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+112.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xf8ad…c303backed Yes46c67.82$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.783177.4%24 W · 7 L+4.8wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+25%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No79c65.71$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.031,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd6e…b651backed No77c64.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504667.4%31 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae37…90f2backed Yes18c62.84$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.641838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes45c61.46$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.562,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No78c61.01$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.452,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No78c60.58$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No36c60.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.82,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8473…5511backed Yes28c58.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.239128.6%26 W · 65 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No49c58.9$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5761752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes29c57.15$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.324738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No39c56.02$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.772,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes62c54.26$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5799962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No78c51.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.559,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No78c51.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9868867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6408…290dbacked Yes24c50.2$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.051020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.548149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x96e6…fecebacked Yes53c47.59$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5926142.1%110 W · 151 L+15.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No59c46.94$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No73c45.86$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.72,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No49c42.58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.861,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No55c40.88$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.292,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8490…ac46backed Yes51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.221353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick33cpaid+60.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes30c37.9$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.538,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…8834backed Yes34c37.84$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8412547.2%59 W · 66 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8b9…3afcbacked No67c35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.520438.7%79 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No50c34.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.298,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No80c34.61$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.691,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes52c34.12$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.485,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85cb…fd34backed No72c33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.883171%22 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick71cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b9…3d3bbacked No61c32.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd14d…b3cbbacked No80c32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No39c31.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.372,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed No79c31.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9537355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No73c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.93,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f64…9600backed Yes77c26.7$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0510758.9%63 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No80c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5068…1ffabacked No77c25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.355457.4%31 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf39…b050backed No80c24.23$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.382560%15 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c2a…b7b5backed Yes66c23.62$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.131662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+30%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae28…8883backed Yes80c22.92$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No77c22.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3362770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2512…601fbacked Yes70c21.16$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-52.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe47d…94e5backed No53c20.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No77c20.58$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8565353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No59c20.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.039262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xecc6…55bfbacked No80c20.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168385.5%71 W · 12 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick78cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.31,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7b62…e627backed No56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.121369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick67cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No76c18.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.12,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe7d…fd73backed No54c18.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106648.5%32 W · 34 L-7.0wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-18.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No71c18.41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.072,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a6d…4abebacked No60c18.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.946969.6%48 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No75c18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.54,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb338…7a24backed No80c15.94$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.755869%40 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc86c…2a30backed No79c15.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51118.2%2 W · 9 L-5.3wins-0.48per pick67cpaid-67.8%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x82ce…e92abacked No74c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.112467.7%84 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27c5…0d4cbacked No71c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6512758.3%74 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59ad…0cf2backed No78c14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.926761.2%41 W · 26 L-7.0wins-0.10per pick72cpaid-16.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.