MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccfbdfbba1a31bd37d027f27315a174342272d297b954c35d8ff420b4b885a32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 52c | 45,780$23,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,823.11 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 35,362$16,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,716.84 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 6,417$3,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,166.53 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 46c | 3,929$1,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,823.53 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 1,442$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.61 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 1,156$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.51 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 55c | 1,110$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.5 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 36c | 947.56$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.67 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…9d0bbacked Under | 79c | 600$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 583.64$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.64 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 525$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.25 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 510.07$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.09 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 62c | 463$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.7 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 25c | 329.13$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 45c | 259$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 73c | 201.85$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…6555backed Under | 63c | 162.04$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x975c…6343backed Under | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -45%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 27c | 96.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 58c | 95.81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 55c | 82.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Over | 45c | 74.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 55c | 46.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 55c | 39.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 73c | 32.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Over | 49c | 28.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 45c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 53c | 27.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 59c | 25.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 78c | 25.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4f…5ec9backed Under | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbe…0801backed Under | 80c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. AthleticsDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.