TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Detroit Tigersof Detroit Tigers, Athletics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$820,766
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,043,282

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $820,766 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 243 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0954…1e1bbacked Detroit Tigers54c362,343$195,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167,022.53616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick48cpaid-69.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e94…5ba1backed Athletics47c191,489$90,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89,999.7646949%230 W · 239 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Athletics30c50,814$15,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,118.4418248.4%88 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Athletics45c35,049$15,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,771.977647.4%368 W · 408 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Athletics45c34,996$15,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,7484,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Athletics48c30,079$14,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,437.693,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Detroit Tigers52c15,000$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,20016548.5%80 W · 85 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics45c15,000$6,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,749.995,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Athletics45c14,251$6,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,426.1410,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Detroit Tigers53c13,206$6,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,206.661,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Detroit Tigers53c12,883$6,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,055.0171650.7%363 W · 353 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Athletics46c10,570$4,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,905.016,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Athletics48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,799.9853150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Athletics48c9,962$4,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,744.072,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Detroit Tigers59c9,844$5,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,063.6434756.5%196 W · 151 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Athletics45c8,812$3,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,951.5311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a55…5a54backed Athletics45c5,173$2,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,327.855240.4%21 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Athletics49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,45048952.8%258 W · 231 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Athletics47c4,255$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00028042.1%118 W · 162 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Athletics48c3,567$1,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,706.451,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Athletics45c3,500$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,57545748.6%222 W · 235 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Detroit Tigers52c3,402$1,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,632.9669453.6%372 W · 322 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Athletics47c3,232$1,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,528.42,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Athletics46c3,200$1,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45664452.2%336 W · 308 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Athletics48c2,840$1,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,363.219534.4%67 W · 128 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfe6…4fadbacked Detroit Tigers56c2,648$1,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.884367.4%29 W · 14 L+7.8wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+36.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Detroit Tigers52c2,500$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20019250%96 W · 96 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Athletics48c2,467$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.794,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e90…4f65backed Detroit Tigers52c2,381$1,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.853351.5%17 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x93f4…5e4fbacked Athletics45c2,222$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabd0…fe12backed Detroit Tigers52c2,115$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.382352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Athletics3c2,044$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.431,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c6…3dd2backed Athletics49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007142.3%30 W · 41 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x73f6…a10abacked Athletics47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94017150.3%86 W · 85 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc31…971fbacked Detroit Tigers52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.9932850.3%165 W · 163 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics27c1,968$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.548,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Detroit Tigers52c1,807$939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867.1525248.8%123 W · 129 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8c…ba13backed Detroit Tigers74c1,743$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.2415851.9%82 W · 76 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-10.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x225b…9a83backed Athletics7c1,616$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.157237.5%27 W · 45 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2759…2b38backed Athletics48c1,577$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.05966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+45.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Athletics31c1,567$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4828,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Detroit Tigers69c1,449$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.2819453.6%104 W · 90 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Athletics31c1,381$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.883,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb88a…f6adbacked Detroit Tigers52c1,361$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.2828753.3%153 W · 134 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5633…59bcbacked Detroit Tigers52c1,361$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.2827952%145 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Athletics10c1,306$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.162,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd25…a624backed Detroit Tigers78c1,262$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.687060%42 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Athletics48c1,024$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.522,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x080e…78a5backed Athletics15c1,011$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.649129.7%27 W · 64 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98e1…3241backed Detroit Tigers55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4509644.8%43 W · 53 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6e0…ff0fbacked Athletics47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47030647.4%145 W · 161 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Athletics45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4506844.1%30 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Athletics45c999$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.551,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfeb3…4091backed Detroit Tigers52c994.74$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.746731.3%21 W · 46 L-10.9wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-33.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x39cb…46e8backed Detroit Tigers54c925.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.934060%24 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Athletics45c915.47$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.961,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Athletics6c835.6$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2185…b40cbacked Detroit Tigers51c800$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39226255.7%146 W · 116 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Athletics26c780.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.331,07558.3%627 W · 448 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Athletics46c742$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.321,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb88…0e4cbacked Detroit Tigers77c727.03$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.3110465.4%68 W · 36 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb797…e779backed Athletics47c650$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.59048.9%44 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf8e…32c0backed Athletics3c621.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9958…b9acbacked Detroit Tigers54c555.56$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.5614358%83 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Detroit Tigers51c549.97$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.491,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x262c…f803backed Detroit Tigers52c545$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.6580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+76.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Athletics45c531.6$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.122,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a26…1589backed Detroit Tigers58c506.9$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.98551.8%44 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb46…48efbacked Athletics47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23513848.6%67 W · 71 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f8b…37c8backed Detroit Tigers69c464.67$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.059570.5%67 W · 28 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Athletics45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011041.8%46 W · 64 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfee…0608backed Athletics23c434.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003234.4%11 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac6…a8cebacked Detroit Tigers53c424.53$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.537941.8%33 W · 46 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked Detroit Tigers52c408$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.8461250.5%309 W · 303 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Detroit Tigers52c395$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.628347.3%134 W · 149 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc92c…6f15backed Detroit Tigers52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.6227357.1%156 W · 117 L+0.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab61…fb2bbacked Detroit Tigers52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.628647.7%41 W · 45 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb43e…8200backed Detroit Tigers52c384.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.4522744.9%102 W · 125 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Detroit Tigers53c370.55$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.1629344.7%131 W · 162 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x54d0…8e20backed Detroit Tigers55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.6432157%183 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed Detroit Tigers52c340.21$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.337546.9%176 W · 199 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Detroit Tigers74c328$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.285,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked Detroit Tigers54c324.07$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.0722055.5%122 W · 98 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Detroit Tigers51c320$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.81,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcccc…05b2backed Detroit Tigers79c316.45$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.453287.5%28 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick78cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Detroit Tigers76c309.48$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.8985148.5%413 W · 438 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa73a…656abacked Detroit Tigers53c300$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14157758.1%335 W · 242 L+28.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4dea…5e23backed Athletics47c293$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.6442550.1%213 W · 212 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Athletics46c273$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.581,13742.6%484 W · 653 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed Detroit Tigers70c263.01$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.7525447.6%121 W · 133 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x276a…fc66backed Detroit Tigers72c261.5$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.014100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Athletics21c260$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.652053.8%280 W · 240 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2465…5d84backed Detroit Tigers77c259$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.571,10079.6%876 W · 224 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick77cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5dbe…ea98backed Detroit Tigers69c242.12$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.068968.5%61 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Athletics49c235$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.152,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x089b…a2ccbacked Detroit Tigers51c234.75$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bfa…8b61backed Detroit Tigers52c230.77$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.7718356.8%104 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75dd…b869backed Athletics49c225.1$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6597…b746backed Detroit Tigers73c219.18$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.1825351.8%131 W · 122 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68cb…0000backed Detroit Tigers73c215.5$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.3348660.5%294 W · 192 L+40.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.