Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs AVULUS - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd0211715bcf3fc6fd8e0a9996967f8af6a4cf84363265ff0cf2f0c87023e406
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AVULUSof Aurora, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd537…0f7cbacked Aurora | 50c | 9,670$4,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,830.31 | 204 | 52.9%108 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed Aurora | 58c | 6,050$3,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,485.01 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…a444backed Aurora | 2c | 4,800$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6218…f388backed AVULUS | 33c | 4,736$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,173.15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked AVULUS | 31c | 4,359$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,990.06 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed AVULUS | 59c | 3,678$2,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,489.94 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora | 50c | 2,500$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.48 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e06…5a9bbacked Aurora | 36c | 2,001$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.01 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked AVULUS | 45c | 1,955$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.72 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…eb66backed AVULUS | 68c | 1,617$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.64 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1425backed Aurora | 73c | 1,505$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked AVULUS | 35c | 1,137$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.18 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed AVULUS | 30c | 999.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.99 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed AVULUS | 49c | 944.9$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.33 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Aurora | 72c | 845.53$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.68 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed AVULUS | 54c | 800$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed AVULUS | 52c | 713.68$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.74 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…600bbacked AVULUS | 77c | 649.37$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked AVULUS | 56c | 614.05$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.15 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed AVULUS | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Aurora | 71c | 371.38$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.58 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Aurora | 28c | 353.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Aurora | 73c | 351.02$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.49 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebb…1f99backed Aurora | 51c | 334.62$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Aurora | 10c | 205.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 61 | 3.3%2 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked AVULUS | 31c | 201.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.85 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked AVULUS | 56c | 191.5$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.26 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked AVULUS | 64c | 159.15$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked AVULUS | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…9fb0backed Aurora | 41c | 130$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked AVULUS | 56c | 114.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.42 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Aurora | 71c | 109.14$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed AVULUS | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…4c5abacked AVULUS | 38c | 101.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 94 | 78.7%74 W · 20 L | +13.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x95d8…2922backed AVULUS | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked AVULUS | 70c | 94.85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed AVULUS | 66c | 78.47$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed AVULUS | 51c | 59.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdff…265ebacked Aurora | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed AVULUS | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…d7a5backed AVULUS | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed AVULUS | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed AVULUS | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab2…cba6backed Aurora | 46c | 48.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed AVULUS | 45c | 31.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…cbe5backed AVULUS | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…922ebacked Aurora | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked AVULUS | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b94…709abacked AVULUS | 66c | 22.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Aurora | 56c | 18.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs AVULUS - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs AVULUS (BO3)Aurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs AVULUS - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.