Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs AVULUS (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad1ab60e7c858b34055b892a4a154dddde877ae5a0031c91e1dd7501b9d02125
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6218…f388backed AVULUS | 51c | 8,280$4,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,189.65 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7441…cb79backed AVULUS | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed AVULUS | 34c | 4,363$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.41 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aurora | 67c | 4,012$2,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.25 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Aurora | 46c | 2,878$1,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.1 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Aurora | 60c | 2,654$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.42 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Aurora | 61c | 2,435$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.5 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed AVULUS | 20c | 2,360$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.62 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed AVULUS | 22c | 2,150$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.75 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed AVULUS | 24c | 2,133$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.94 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d53…3ad0backed Aurora | 74c | 1,351$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora | 50c | 1,344$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.12 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Aurora | 63c | 1,300$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.98 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae17…b10dbacked AVULUS | 38c | 1,266$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Aurora | 68c | 1,193$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.08 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22d0…6293backed Aurora | 54c | 1,096$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.1 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Aurora | 78c | 1,047$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.44 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…600bbacked AVULUS | 50c | 1,014$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Aurora | 69c | 1,013$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.85 | 235 | 29.4%69 W · 166 L | -21.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…a444backed AVULUS | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e06…5a9bbacked Aurora | 71c | 999.79$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.94 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Aurora | 78c | 736.62$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.25 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Aurora | 63c | 638.6$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.16 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed AVULUS | 25c | 565.42$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260c…7130backed AVULUS | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc00f…0f52backed Aurora | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc36b…a540backed Aurora | 58c | 492.08$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.33 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked AVULUS | 36c | 454.02$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.55 | 301 | 38.9%117 W · 184 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked AVULUS | 29c | 427.28$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.88 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…7181backed AVULUS | 25c | 425.6$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 26cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b15…a031backed Aurora | 48c | 418.17$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.51 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Aurora | 80c | 401.39$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.12 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Aurora | 52c | 398.08$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.99 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed Aurora | 63c | 396.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.83 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed AVULUS | 17c | 369$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf384…0543backed AVULUS | 26c | 346.18$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Aurora | 58c | 337.9$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.44 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13c6…ff7dbacked Aurora | 61c | 330$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Aurora | 77c | 329$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.27 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed AVULUS | 18c | 325.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed AVULUS | 29c | 281.32$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.56 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed AVULUS | 30c | 266.35$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed AVULUS | 38c | 264.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed AVULUS | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Aurora | 47c | 210.34$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.48 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora | 55c | 200.36$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.72 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d8…2922backed Aurora | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdff…265ebacked AVULUS | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbec5…8f77backed Aurora | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Aurora | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b31…f8cfbacked AVULUS | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x788d…99bbbacked Aurora | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…5a30backed AVULUS | 49c | 175.51$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 95 | 44.2%42 W · 53 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Aurora | 48c | 173$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.96 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked AVULUS | 12c | 165.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed AVULUS | 10c | 165.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked AVULUS | 36c | 162.49$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Aurora | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 106 | 59.4%63 W · 43 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Aurora | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 378 | 32.5%123 W · 255 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Aurora | 78c | 148$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Aurora | 68c | 144.96$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74a0…1be2backed Aurora | 63c | 136.62$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…046bbacked Aurora | 77c | 129.87$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Aurora | 73c | 128.73$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b7…304dbacked Aurora | 56c | 116.3$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55b…9f18backed AVULUS | 17c | 109.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…22eabacked AVULUS | 22c | 105.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Aurora | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…a5bebacked AVULUS | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1a…25cebacked AVULUS | 21c | 93.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…d9cfbacked AVULUS | 52c | 92.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked AVULUS | 15c | 90.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed AVULUS | 28c | 87.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked AVULUS | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Aurora | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked AVULUS | 21c | 84.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x76d1…73d5backed AVULUS | 17c | 79.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…f1eebacked AVULUS | 23c | 78.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9f…bcbebacked AVULUS | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…5f95backed Aurora | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…9fb0backed AVULUS | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6589…5e90backed Aurora | 68c | 68.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd9…8323backed Aurora | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4499…d102backed Aurora | 80c | 64.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x311d…447dbacked AVULUS | 50c | 62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Aurora | 79c | 61.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Aurora | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…1dccbacked AVULUS | 35c | 57.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…196bbacked Aurora | 70c | 57.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed AVULUS | 45c | 56.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7927…34d2backed AVULUS | 38c | 56.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed AVULUS | 37c | 55.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf76d…29d8backed Aurora | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c88…d85dbacked AVULUS | 29c | 51.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b94…709abacked Aurora | 67c | 50.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Aurora | 73c | 50.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d80…7a4bbacked AVULUS | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…d358backed Aurora | 70c | 46.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Aurora | 48c | 45.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce0a…2d88backed Aurora | 55c | 45.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs AVULUS (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs AVULUS - Game 1 WinnerAVULUS won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs AVULUS - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.