TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs AVULUS (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Aurora, AVULUS
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$99,461
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$123,467

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,461 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6218…f388backed AVULUS51c8,280$4,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,189.651735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7441…cb79backed AVULUS2c5,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed AVULUS34c4,363$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.4119148.7%93 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Aurora67c4,012$2,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,340.2573841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Aurora46c2,878$1,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,566.185851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3da4…28d7backed Aurora60c2,654$1,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,072.427647.4%36 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Aurora61c2,435$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.599844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed AVULUS20c2,360$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.6248954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed AVULUS22c2,150$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.7546535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed AVULUS24c2,133$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.9445139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d53…3ad0backed Aurora74c1,351$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.2966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora50c1,344$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.1280443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked Aurora63c1,300$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.9818649.5%92 W · 94 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae17…b10dbacked AVULUS38c1,266$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4781957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Aurora68c1,193$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.0866662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed Aurora54c1,096$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.16647%31 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Aurora78c1,047$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.448253.7%44 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1d7…600bbacked AVULUS50c1,014$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Aurora69c1,013$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.8523529.4%69 W · 166 L-21.5wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9024…a444backed AVULUS6c999.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60300%0 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e06…5a9bbacked Aurora71c999.79$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.941942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-34.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Aurora78c736.62$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.2516665.7%109 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…5950backed Aurora63c638.6$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.162462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed AVULUS25c565.42$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.529245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x260c…7130backed AVULUS23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1153043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc00f…0f52backed Aurora80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+32.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc36b…a540backed Aurora58c492.08$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.334438.6%17 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked AVULUS36c454.02$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.5530138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked AVULUS29c427.28$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.882,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a7a…7181backed AVULUS25c425.6$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.3862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick26cpaid+118.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8b15…a031backed Aurora48c418.17$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.512556%14 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Aurora80c401.39$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.1241055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Aurora52c398.08$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.9911955.5%66 W · 53 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed Aurora63c396.83$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.8312851.6%66 W · 62 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed AVULUS17c369$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7359250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf384…0543backed AVULUS26c346.18$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Aurora58c337.9$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.4486949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13c6…ff7dbacked Aurora61c330$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.63935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc954…642fbacked Aurora77c329$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.2716155.3%89 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13e9…7cd4backed AVULUS18c325.12$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609045.6%41 W · 49 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8a0…35b6backed AVULUS29c281.32$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.561741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37f8…b5e5backed AVULUS30c266.35$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.525137.3%19 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed AVULUS38c264.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017342.8%74 W · 99 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed AVULUS5c250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1963032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Aurora47c210.34$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.4861057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora55c200.36$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.722,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95d8…2922backed Aurora68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdff…265ebacked AVULUS24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.242133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed Aurora49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1027835.9%28 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fd3…3d7abacked Aurora63c200$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7429047.9%139 W · 151 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b31…f8cfbacked AVULUS15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x788d…99bbbacked Aurora51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.08757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f7c…5a30backed AVULUS49c175.51$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869544.2%42 W · 53 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Aurora48c173$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.9679341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked AVULUS12c165.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.222740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed AVULUS10c165.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6114537.2%54 W · 91 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked AVULUS36c162.49$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.513238.6%51 W · 81 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Aurora63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7310659.4%63 W · 43 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Aurora76c150$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3637832.5%123 W · 255 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Aurora78c148$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0564744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Aurora68c144.96$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.788037.5%30 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x74a0…1be2backed Aurora63c136.62$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.252770.4%19 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f0a…046bbacked Aurora77c129.87$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed Aurora73c128.73$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7667853.5%363 W · 315 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b7…304dbacked Aurora56c116.3$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.17540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf55b…9f18backed AVULUS17c109.08$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.26425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7373…22eabacked AVULUS22c105.51$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.612326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed Aurora55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4518347%86 W · 97 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fd8…a5bebacked AVULUS16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620339.9%81 W · 122 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1a…25cebacked AVULUS21c93.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.440%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x85c0…d9cfbacked AVULUS52c92.31$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked AVULUS15c90.51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5870236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4651…8da8backed AVULUS28c87.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.75714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-50.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6365…df4ebacked AVULUS29c86.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2522538.7%87 W · 138 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Aurora70c85.71$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7143647.5%207 W · 229 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked AVULUS21c84.26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.43286.4%21 W · 307 L-102.4wins-0.31per pick38cpaid-72.6%equal weight18-0.29 edge/pick
0x76d1…73d5backed AVULUS17c79.62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.83922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-69.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f6b…f1eebacked AVULUS23c78.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9450%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d9f…bcbebacked AVULUS40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-50.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfffb…5f95backed Aurora62c70$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.951650%8 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-22%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d8d…9fb0backed AVULUS15c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.58622.1%19 W · 67 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6589…5e90backed Aurora68c68.92$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.92425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-63.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcd9…8323backed Aurora74c67.56$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4499…d102backed Aurora80c64.11$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.822147.6%10 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-18.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x311d…447dbacked AVULUS50c62$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Aurora79c61.12$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.023735.1%13 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-35.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Aurora51c58.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8218444.6%82 W · 102 L+12.2wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x35e6…1dccbacked AVULUS35c57.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204938.8%19 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc48…196bbacked Aurora70c57.37$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.372100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed AVULUS45c56.9$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6131245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7927…34d2backed AVULUS38c56.68$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.54862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23d4…5607backed AVULUS37c55.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.543240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf76d…29d8backed Aurora73c54.79$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.792152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c88…d85dbacked AVULUS29c51.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.861040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b94…709abacked Aurora67c50.94$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.96771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf035…0924backed Aurora73c50.27$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5712449.2%61 W · 63 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d80…7a4bbacked AVULUS32c46.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153745.9%17 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x584d…d358backed Aurora70c46.67$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc393…590abacked Aurora48c45.83$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8323849.6%118 W · 120 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce0a…2d88backed Aurora55c45.73$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.736867.6%46 W · 22 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.