NBA · resolved market
Will the Cavaliers beat the Pacers 4-1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd278875af363771113a32287d5cee29997ecb31a08bb386f864d5d080319693
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 27c | 1,490$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 25c | 1,252$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 109 | 26.6%29 W · 80 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 75c | 1,202$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.89 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked No | 75c | 833.33$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.33 | 333 | 48.9%163 W · 170 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 16c | 706.67$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.67 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 78c | 547.2$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.24 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Yes | 20c | 503.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6622…d7a9backed Yes | 26c | 472.97$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.97 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 17c | 288.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 17c | 126$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 101.44$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…02ffbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc58c…1359backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Pacers 4-1?this page
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Pacers 4-0?No won
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Pacers 4-2?No won
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Pacers 4-3?No won
- Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-0?No won
- Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-1?Yes won
- Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-2?No won
- Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.