NBA · resolved market
Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x149c41261ded35d7ae0c5c213beadab19489a754d0ff8339a93540709e12e735
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 17c | 2,945$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.29 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Yes | 39c | 1,088$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.77 | 333 | 48.9%163 W · 170 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 7c | 1,030$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed No | 60c | 895.05$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.02 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 73c | 531.98$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.4 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…eed5backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 157 | 42.7%67 W · 90 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Yes | 16c | 516.67$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.67 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 18c | 514.5$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 209.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe80…1b41backed No | 68c | 166.44$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f18…77c9backed Yes | 18c | 113.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b2…0d0fbacked Yes | 37c | 108.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 70c | 104.02$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb500…ce53backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe71d…78cebacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Yes | 19c | 99.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 264 | 39.4%104 W · 160 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 81.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 35c | 46.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 41c | 31.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-2?this page
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Pacers 4-0?No won
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Pacers 4-1?No won
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Pacers 4-2?No won
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Pacers 4-3?No won
- Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-0?No won
- Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-1?Yes won
- Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.