NBA · resolved market
Will the Cavaliers beat the Pacers 4-3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x519dbfc05d21cf795dbab357865a7255cd1632fe911bd61faca3279f5d18c3c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed No | 79c | 16,654$13,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,449.13 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8679…4659backed Yes | 24c | 9,790$2,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,380.87 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 20c | 5,692$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.32 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 21c | 5,331$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.81 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x883e…31dfbacked Yes | 25c | 4,196$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.11 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 25c | 3,563$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.87 | 227 | 50.2%114 W · 113 L | +24.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…caefbacked Yes | 16c | 1,428$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.43 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 72c | 1,311$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.79 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…7d67backed No | 64c | 1,072$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Yes | 23c | 1,016$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 72c | 933.85$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.79 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…eed5backed Yes | 27c | 741.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 157 | 42.7%67 W · 90 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed No | 64c | 709.2$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.31 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 32c | 653.68$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.55 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…2a2abacked Yes | 34c | 522.21$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.79 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 26c | 507.14$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Yes | 36c | 442.85$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.43 | 333 | 48.9%163 W · 170 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 24c | 416.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ba…5ba6backed No | 77c | 415.18$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…0dcebacked No | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 227.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 18c | 207.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dae…baf5backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 21c | 169.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db1…2e23backed Yes | 33c | 157.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed No | 74c | 134.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 241 | 51.9%125 W · 116 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked Yes | 31c | 131.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 28c | 119.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 100.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 260 | 48.1%125 W · 135 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570e…de2dbacked No | 69c | 73.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8093…6910backed No | 69c | 71.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 38c | 33.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8355…6ce8backed No | 76c | 26.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed No | 69c | 25.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +52%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…21aabacked No | 69c | 25.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Pacers 4-3?this page
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Pacers 4-0?No won
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Pacers 4-1?No won
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Pacers 4-2?No won
- Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-0?No won
- Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-1?Yes won
- Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-2?No won
- Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.