NBA · resolved market
Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f314dd8cc294f38b635e0b6a646d791de96adc07c193fbf177b63f7e2dadfda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 12c | 13,399$1,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,791.45 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 13c | 10,500$1,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,176 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +75%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 11c | 7,345$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,540.69 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 6c | 6,715$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,305.46 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 4,225$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Yes | 15c | 2,520$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,141.99 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 9c | 2,300$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,083 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 3c | 1,931$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,865.98 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 17c | 1,627$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355.43 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…eed5backed Yes | 22c | 1,388$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.39 | 157 | 42.7%67 W · 90 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 25c | 1,290$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.82 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 10c | 1,186$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.95 | 412 | 27.4%113 W · 299 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 11c | 1,149$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.92 | 98 | 4.1%4 W · 94 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Yes | 11c | 1,006$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.07 | 333 | 48.9%163 W · 170 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 14c | 700.41$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.87 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 74c | 655.5$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.17 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 2c | 618.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.51 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 72c | 600$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 500$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.29 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 38c | 404$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.18 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 373.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.4 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 9c | 355.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.4 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…2518backed Yes | 7c | 278$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +1,492.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55a8…7c82backed Yes | 7c | 219$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,269.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551d…7309backed Yes | 7c | 201$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,269.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 10c | 199.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.8 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…4257backed Yes | 7c | 193$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,269.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…09b9backed Yes | 7c | 177$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,269.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed Yes | 13c | 174$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.09 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 20c | 144.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.06 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…8322backed No | 80c | 139.31$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 128$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.79 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e60…2e40backed Yes | 8c | 121$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,104.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Yes | 14c | 109.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.43 | 264 | 39.4%104 W · 160 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 100.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.07 | 260 | 48.1%125 W · 135 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b2…0d0fbacked Yes | 29c | 69.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…e9a0backed Yes | 29c | 69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +242.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0d…e4efbacked Yes | 29c | 68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +242.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc2…071bbacked Yes | 29c | 59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +242.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 29c | 51.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 356 | 60.4%215 W · 141 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 24c | 46.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 70c | 36.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…9b1cbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78fa…21eabacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac5…7018backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…6e3abacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6621…c920backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…79dbbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 49c | 27.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 250 | 39.6%99 W · 151 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-1?this page
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Pacers 4-0?No won
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Pacers 4-1?No won
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Pacers 4-2?No won
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Pacers 4-3?No won
- Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-0?No won
- Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-2?No won
- Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.