NBA · resolved market
Will the Cavaliers beat the Pacers 4-2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x817a64b7791826e747d14600d9c246f27e134b6f645bee56c817acc5b087d531
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2da5…204ebacked Yes | 29c | 3,451$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 76c | 2,682$2,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.6 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Yes | 18c | 1,730$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes | 28c | 1,730$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.45 | 605 | 49.8%301 W · 304 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 80c | 1,252$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.38 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 73c | 787.2$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.76 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8679…4659backed Yes | 15c | 540$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 23c | 445$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.9 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…eed5backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 157 | 42.7%67 W · 90 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 14c | 190.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 20c | 166.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked Yes | 19c | 154.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 186 | 32.3%60 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 71c | 111$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…2a2abacked Yes | 34c | 100.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0615…5c47backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed No | 63c | 25.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +52%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Pacers 4-2?this page
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Pacers 4-0?No won
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Pacers 4-1?No won
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Pacers 4-3?No won
- Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-0?No won
- Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-1?Yes won
- Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-2?No won
- Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.