Middle East · resolved market
Will UEFA ban or suspend Israel by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd28d79d6a97d2208f7c0f732537204cdfb6c57eb2d3c8c461e7477ba76b6ee5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,893$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,770$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 23c | 909.72$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.29 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 23c | 705.67$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.1 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 14c | 700$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 20c | 639.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 597.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 8c | 448.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 77c | 438.45$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.46 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…02a5backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 78c | 233.71$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 57c | 182.05$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 59c | 176.8$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…04cbbacked No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.6wins | -0.45per pick | 70cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…4c44backed Yes | 77c | 129.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 54cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…6bdebacked No | 75c | 103$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 76c | 98.3$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c73…0fd5backed No | 79c | 88.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78f0…c63cbacked No | 61c | 88.48$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d93…1cffbacked No | 52c | 58.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27af…6ec8backed No | 75c | 19.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ba…7889backed No | 75c | 18.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 78c | 15.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.