Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd2fa797185e8309d0dd7996f7a47bc3569cd519338e719f4a7fd6905a17f12b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 18c | 499.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 274.09$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.69 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 232.45$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…830abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 78c | 199.37$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…7518backed No | 70c | 190.72$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 182.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 180.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 132.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 132.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 18c | 129.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 74c | 128.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 128.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 123.64$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 22c | 109.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 79c | 100.1$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…0787backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 21c | 88.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 26c | 86.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 81.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 20c | 76.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 68.11$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd3…31fbbacked Yes | 31c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc678…e738backed Yes | 17c | 58.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 75c | 54.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 78c | 54.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 20c | 51.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 70c | 44.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 25c | 44.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 41.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 28c | 39.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 79c | 36.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 35.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 77c | 35.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked No | 80c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 80c | 28.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 78c | 26.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 78c | 25.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 24.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c6…3eb8backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…2895backed No | 80c | 14.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.