Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70b5cb79a1516ec45850977722c2165ec7c98a2854d1693cdff78d0e569088f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2e…9fd0backed Yes | 0c | 14,020$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6519…611bbacked Yes | 49c | 500$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 46c | 314.09$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.59 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…7104backed Yes | 54c | 268.26$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.9 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 247.83$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4269…e056backed No | 71c | 202.02$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.29 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 54c | 192.8$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 54c | 185.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 46c | 181.88$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.85 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 53c | 177.84$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.26 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…0787backed No | 61c | 164.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 44c | 151.76$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.53 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 65c | 151.05$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 147.94$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 34c | 145.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 136.58$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 52c | 128.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 60c | 116.61$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 43c | 112.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 45c | 110.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 41c | 110$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 42c | 105.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 42c | 104.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 40c | 104.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 41c | 102.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 47c | 99.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb42…cf6bbacked Yes | 56c | 98.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 49c | 97.39$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 48c | 95.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes | 52c | 87.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 87.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 64c | 80.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 44c | 76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 29c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 55c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 63c | 74.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 58c | 72.81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes | 55c | 72.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 70.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 57c | 67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 56c | 66.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 54c | 62.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 59.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…4d87backed Yes | 50c | 52.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 58c | 51.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 50c | 49.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 57c | 49.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad44…4ef4backed Yes | 36c | 48.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 55c | 46.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 64c | 46.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 55c | 46.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 42c | 44.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 57c | 44.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed Yes | 57c | 42.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 43c | 40.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 63c | 39.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 44c | 39.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 55c | 36.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 45c | 33.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 53c | 33.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…a8f6backed Yes | 57c | 33.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 55c | 33.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x092b…d5aabacked No | 54c | 32.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 52c | 31.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 45c | 30.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 38c | 28.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 52c | 26.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 58c | 25.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 58c | 25.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 58c | 25.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 52c | 25.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 54c | 24.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 64c | 24.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 73c | 22.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 47c | 21.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 54c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69d…80cdbacked Yes | 55c | 21.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 50c | 21.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 62c | 20.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 58c | 20.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 19.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c28…1041backed Yes | 56c | 19.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 63c | 19.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 57c | 18.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x396b…1759backed Yes | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.