Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58a6a4d910bf3dc6306081530df8dec86ec7ef6828955e8292a528e3aa12b76e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 50c | 479.84$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.9 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 474.08$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.94 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 77c | 392.81$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 25c | 289$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.17 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 64c | 287.71$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.16 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 66c | 250.78$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.81 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 74c | 230.26$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 33c | 229.26$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.09 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 204.54$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 75c | 187.81$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.86 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 182.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 171.76$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.13 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 66c | 159.97$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.38 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 154.87$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.26 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 25c | 153.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.27 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…7104backed Yes | 44c | 142.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.42 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…15a2backed Yes | 40c | 142.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.92 | 81 | 7.4%6 W · 75 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 22c | 137.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.42 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 30c | 135.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 130$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 130$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 80c | 128.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.79 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 62c | 128.7$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 125.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 17c | 118.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.28 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 68c | 111.36$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 111.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 105.41$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 38c | 105.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.27 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.38 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 30c | 95.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.46 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 15c | 90.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…7518backed Yes | 20c | 89.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.58 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 74c | 85.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 21c | 78.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes | 20c | 78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 36c | 71.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 33c | 70.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 22c | 69.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 75c | 66.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 27c | 65.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 19c | 63.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 72c | 62.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 20c | 55.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 22c | 51.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 53c | 48.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 74c | 47.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 36c | 47.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 46.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…0629backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 49c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad44…4ef4backed Yes | 52c | 38.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 52c | 37.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 75c | 32.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 53c | 29.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 75c | 27.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 76c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…d8d3backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 57c | 25.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 80c | 23.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 48c | 22.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 66c | 22.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 73c | 20.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 55c | 20.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 75c | 20.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae2…cd50backed No | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 79c | 19.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…10fcbacked No | 65c | 18.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 75c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 15.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 80c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.