Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Lorient: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd3ffdddd6d21987ba3533fe3e9be84c22b98100ce4b30de19e49a547bd41d09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbed3…2811backed Under | 76c | 14,244$10,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,395.84 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 24c | 11,926$2,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,834.88 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 68c | 2,071$1,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.86 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 28c | 1,925$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.37 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 32c | 1,471$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.68 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 1,105$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.9 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…7a18backed Over | 7c | 999.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Over | 32c | 987.15$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.89 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Over | 32c | 507.26$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.47 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 76c | 441.27$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.47 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 28c | 374.29$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.15 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 20c | 359.65$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 21c | 336.14$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 23c | 308.49$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Over | 32c | 299.75$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.92 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 68c | 294.27$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.62 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 25c | 230.51$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fff…76e6backed Under | 69c | 157.61$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 11c | 118.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 13c | 113.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 67c | 110.36$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 26c | 110.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb71…b5a0backed Over | 23c | 105.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Over | 33c | 101.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…2fbbbacked Under | 76c | 97.26$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Under | 68c | 87.09$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac6…bdf8backed Under | 69c | 42.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…5c17backed Over | 33c | 40.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 31c | 38.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e4…f926backed Over | 32c | 36.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f354backed Under | 66c | 32.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd7…e3b5backed Under | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265b…2d05backed Under | 69c | 28.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 67c | 15.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bf…f385backed Under | 72c | 14.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Lorient: O/U 3.5this page
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Lorient: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Lorient: O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5Under won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Lorient: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-2.5)FC Lorient won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.