Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Lorient: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63a2e49354c4432943c6b8b53c73f3719692044c44d7a6e60ecf6fb25495fd80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 22c | 4,961$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.13 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 3,807$1,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,903.63 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 78c | 3,276$2,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.76 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 2,472$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.05 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Under | 22c | 2,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.99 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 43c | 1,644$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.67 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 75c | 1,203$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.32 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 49c | 994.58$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.59 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…5104backed Over | 49c | 989.18$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…206dbacked Over | 75c | 525.33$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 520.69$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.94 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 49c | 492.61$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.23 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Over | 50c | 441.64$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.82 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Over | 79c | 360.66$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 79c | 356.01$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.03 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 79c | 356.01$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.03 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 79c | 312.27$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.41 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 80c | 308.75$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Over | 47c | 218$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.54 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 78c | 214.33$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Over | 49c | 199.02$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Over | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f2…7830backed Over | 60c | 160$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.9 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 49c | 128.59$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.58 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 80c | 128.49$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 78c | 126.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 78c | 125.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 21c | 125$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 21c | 121.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 69c | 98.51$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Over | 79c | 84.92$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa93…a0c9backed Under | 52c | 84.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed Over | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Over | 49c | 79.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7e…fac0backed Over | 78c | 75.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…cbe8backed Over | 80c | 61.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x823b…3655backed Under | 26c | 57.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf7…cb5bbacked Over | 78c | 50.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…90fdbacked Under | 52c | 46.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…dc37backed Over | 78c | 42.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…1177backed Over | 75c | 40.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 38c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…8ddabacked Under | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 77c | 39.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabd5…e713backed Over | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 56c | 35.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 129 | 63.6%82 W · 47 L | +12.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Over | 78c | 31.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 48c | 30.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e4…361abacked Over | 49c | 30.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…6d7bbacked Over | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Over | 78c | 28.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Under | 52c | 28.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Under | 52c | 25.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…2b45backed Over | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…0425backed Over | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2720backed Under | 52c | 23.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…edfdbacked Over | 79c | 19.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdefb…79afbacked Over | 66c | 19.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 68c | 17.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Over | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Lorient: O/U 1.5this page
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Lorient: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5Under won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Lorient: O/U 3.5Under won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Lorient: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-2.5)FC Lorient won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.