Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd4178baf22e190ec5e425927c45e99f9f1beccc7835daf2a90d462432d901de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 354.26$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 351.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 336.92$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 232.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 8c | 219.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 38c | 183.11$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 55c | 120.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.37 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 58c | 118.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 114.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 52c | 106.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 40c | 103.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.07 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 57c | 100.55$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 100.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 95.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 95.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 89.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b75…490cbacked Yes | 69c | 83.47$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 24c | 77.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 76c | 60.34$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 59c | 59.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 58.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 26c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 52.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 51c | 47.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 53c | 46.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 22c | 46.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 52c | 46.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 41c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 43c | 41.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 41.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 51c | 39.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 47c | 39.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 56c | 39.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 37c | 34.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 63c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 43c | 33.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 43c | 32.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 47c | 31.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 48c | 31.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed No | 47c | 31.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 53c | 31.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 51c | 30.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5888…1109backed Yes | 53c | 30.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…140fbacked Yes | 58c | 27.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 49c | 27.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 63c | 27.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 53c | 24.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa81f…e352backed No | 54c | 24.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 61c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc18…d7c1backed Yes | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…e3cabacked No | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec52…59e8backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.