Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x204ba0fa3aa717dc2d01bffe9bcf5c44becef7bacd8c0a1a2959d25a6a182550
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 1,119$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.37 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 415.16$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.78 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 22c | 350.06$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.01 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 12c | 270.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 30c | 270.17$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 70c | 220.16$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.05 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 24c | 193.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 38c | 182.4$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 152.62$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 8c | 145$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 32c | 138.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 130.15$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 130$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 122.4$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 38c | 121$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 115.41$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 11c | 106.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 105$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…36cdbacked Yes | 12c | 100.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 99.45$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 65c | 94.16$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 89.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 87.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…8e6abacked Yes | 16c | 62.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 60c | 47.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x218d…fa00backed Yes | 34c | 40.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 75c | 40.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 40.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 70c | 31.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 34c | 30.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 66c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 66c | 16.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.