Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd4b41484e8ec903ab63dfd54686466108d250442cc0940fde00b0910765aaa7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 52c | 1,410$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.41 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ad…c303backed Yes | 48c | 1,306$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.92 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 1,279$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…7752backed Yes | 48c | 1,013$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 80c | 663.45$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.23 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 49c | 418.91$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 78c | 390.66$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.58 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 29c | 362.34$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.39 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 69c | 275.03$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.53 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…cc11backed Yes | 40c | 248.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 28c | 242.41$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 213.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 212$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 44c | 207.42$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.24 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 58c | 203.78$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.45 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked No | 78c | 145.5$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 118.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 118.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 51c | 115.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 61c | 101.86$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 21c | 96.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 45c | 95.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6e…ee5fbacked Yes | 23c | 91.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 53c | 91.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 23c | 87.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 76c | 80.13$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 22c | 78.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 70c | 75.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 39c | 72.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 65.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 36c | 52.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 66c | 52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 25c | 51.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 51c | 47.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 67c | 45.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 57c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 42.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 41.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed No | 52c | 38.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 37.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 59c | 35.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 51c | 34.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…9009backed Yes | 41c | 26.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 50c | 21.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4069…9f7dbacked No | 52c | 19.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…d8cebacked No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.