CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Team Falcons (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd673d2087d3ccf24520cfa60db8b598e2dfc6c334b10a61c399f66ea0dd5860
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Astralis, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $154,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ad4…3c1abacked Astralis | 11c | 32,796$3,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,479.68 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Astralis | 16c | 20,336$3,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,203.47 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Astralis | 14c | 9,076$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.09 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…1ab8backed Astralis | 10c | 5,595$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.82 | 178 | 40.4%72 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77e2…e6c0backed Astralis | 18c | 5,557$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…353fbacked Astralis | 19c | 4,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Astralis | 16c | 3,180$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.65 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…7b92backed Astralis | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9732…0cb9backed Astralis | 9c | 2,110$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked Astralis | 10c | 2,036$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.87 | 303 | 48.5%147 W · 156 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Astralis | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 116 | 31.9%37 W · 79 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Astralis | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 259 | 41.3%107 W · 152 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Astralis | 10c | 1,517$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.88 | 171 | 31%53 W · 118 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Astralis | 15c | 1,277$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 5,810 | 37.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L | +78.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Astralis | 16c | 1,200$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.01 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Team Falcons | 79c | 1,008$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.92 | 4,220 | 49.2%2,078 W · 2,142 L | +61.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Astralis | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 241 | 39%94 W · 147 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Astralis | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 220 | 56.4%124 W · 96 L | +19.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Team Falcons | 77c | 864.96$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.71 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Astralis | 15c | 845.4$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.73 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a63…fc03backed Astralis | 17c | 590$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 421 | 42%177 W · 244 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Astralis | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 105 | 38.1%40 W · 65 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…6bbdbacked Astralis | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…fcedbacked Astralis | 17c | 351.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Astralis | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0c…8d39backed Astralis | 20c | 288$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.53 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f78…b642backed Astralis | 17c | 240$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Team Falcons | 80c | 209.1$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Astralis | 7c | 200.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…c220backed Astralis | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 214 | 37.9%81 W · 133 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f4…eadebacked Astralis | 13c | 166.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…044bbacked Astralis | 17c | 151.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 154 | 41.6%64 W · 90 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Astralis | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a2…c111backed Astralis | 12c | 127.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Team Falcons | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Astralis | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Team Falcons | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38b8…5d35backed Astralis | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 364 | 37.4%136 W · 228 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed Astralis | 25c | 92.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…0d18backed Astralis | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…5ec0backed Astralis | 18c | 80.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b71…4293backed Team Falcons | 80c | 48.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b17ebacked Team Falcons | 78c | 42.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 242 | 49.2%119 W · 123 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…00b4backed Team Falcons | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5541…9c6abacked Team Falcons | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb6…0030backed Team Falcons | 77c | 24.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Team Falcons (BO3)this page
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Team Falcons - Map 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Team Falcons - Map 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.