Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd74c942f51282d3e7404a48ba73044937507aa3a18d98b51e90a44164154404
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846of Bayer 04 Leverkusen, 1. FC Heidenheim 1846
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,649 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 73c | 2,400$1,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.92 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 22c | 1,250$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.51 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66dc…5456backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 23c | 252.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…9791backed 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 54c | 221$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 23c | 218.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4740…fa66backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ca…fd12backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 24c | 125.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 76c | 120.21$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 23c | 108.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…a66cbacked 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…25e3backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 21c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 45c | 49.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 78c | 13.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)this page
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.