Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27341cff8d6ef57aeee8bee4b90297bc0c916fe603eac909cb1cd877cda333ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9df…2d62backed Under | 51c | 8,250$4,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,206.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Over | 41c | 4,803$1,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,840.78 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…9b55backed Over | 56c | 3,580$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,579.59 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 2,291$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.37 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 25c | 1,250$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.46 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 741.33$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.16 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 60c | 621.21$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.24 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Under | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9a…2774backed Under | 73c | 494.77$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 26c | 278.89$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.27 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x797e…fc29backed Over | 56c | 196.43$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 73c | 185.19$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.19 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 28c | 150$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…ff11backed Under | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…5cb6backed Over | 56c | 121.43$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c0…06a0backed Over | 36c | 111$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +83%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…7857backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 58c | 78.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 56c | 72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Over | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e7…6446backed Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 27c | 64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 18c | 55.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3590…68f1backed Under | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7718…4c1bbacked Over | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261c…d49dbacked Under | 77c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 44c | 45.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…9af5backed Under | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -6.1wins | -0.36per pick | 65cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6402…c755backed Under | 59c | 34.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Under | 78c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5this page
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.