TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$113,902
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$129,646

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,902 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9158…fa7bbacked Under54c67,818$36,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,621.622941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Over46c60,000$27,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,4003452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under54c5,826$3,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,145.0834144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Over46c2,820$1,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.573056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over45c2,223$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,222.657967.1%53 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over46c2,109$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.0456547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Over46c2,081$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.742661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under55c2,078$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.953,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7879…3653backed Over49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.821957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+29.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over52c1,876$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.152,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1462…ef6bbacked Under56c1,781$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under54c1,519$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.4935856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Under34c1,507$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5202832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Under54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.092755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9df…2d62backed Under41c899.68$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.87742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over47c851.06$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.0622747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under50c647.78$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.841,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Over46c624.25$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.093250%16 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed Over46c543.48$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.482138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf469…dcaabacked Over46c538.02$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.53966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Over45c537.5$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over46c471.15$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.4222047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2fc…a7c1backed Over69c444.93$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.93520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-71%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under49c416.47$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.841,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over41c370.76$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.6633244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cad…0758backed Over45c346.16$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.391163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+28.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2212…267ebacked Over59c332.93$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…4806backed Over62c322.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.58771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over47c320.84$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.8410552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Over46c306.12$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.35052%26 W · 24 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over59c300$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12316060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Over34c294.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.1212635.7%45 W · 81 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Under59c288.14$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1702147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over35c285.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.7111857.6%68 W · 50 L+15.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under54c226.83$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.4919254.7%105 W · 87 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over45c205.42$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.985944.1%26 W · 33 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x02a9…642dbacked Over46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-40.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over46c195.65$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.6518958.2%110 W · 79 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd49b…abffbacked Under62c183.87$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5f22…2935backed Under55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002050%10 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Under55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006132.8%20 W · 41 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-32.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Under56c180$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.820545.9%94 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d54…6c91backed Under57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Over46c175.3$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.663565.7%23 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaad…c739backed Over46c173.91$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.912259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ece…8786backed Over59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.49633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-48.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Over32c153.13$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.1310554.3%57 W · 48 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x927f…b921backed Over46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8698…871fbacked Over46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.73100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21db…2a42backed Over47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.381764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+46.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd35e…a1e8backed Over46c101.15$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.621735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5838845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13b5…2c2cbacked Over42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x784d…9827backed Under55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-65.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over44c99.1$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.563645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed Over46c86.96$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.96650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3b43…fae9backed Over61c85.25$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.251250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb503…7552backed Over34c82.35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.352050%10 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+35.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over50c75$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.534655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Over46c71.42$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.578252.4%43 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Over43c70$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.912843%55 W · 73 L-9.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x341b…b92cbacked Over46c65.39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.31862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Over46c65.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2217930.2%54 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over69c64.78$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0825352.2%132 W · 121 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Under54c62.9$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9712056.7%68 W · 52 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeedf…1483backed Over43c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.23852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Under55c58.53$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1962452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked Over47c53.19$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.198050%40 W · 40 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc003…47a8backed Over60c52.58$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.03966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Under58c51.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302450%12 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c57…40febacked Over44c50.74$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.411782.4%14 W · 3 L+5.4wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+61.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed Over46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6daa…2c78backed Under29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e83…af81backed Over40c49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Under56c45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.28647.7%41 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae9f…4967backed Under57c43.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.26per pick53cpaid-46.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa427…f87fbacked Over46c43.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.393148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a73…c2e5backed Over61c42.16$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.444269%29 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under55c37.91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9210040%40 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x858e…a4abbacked Over33c36.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.365954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under57c36$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.521,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e0a…745dbacked Under56c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.161560%9 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed Under56c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.162748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16fe…9496backed Over42c35.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7115854.4%86 W · 72 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf15…bc03backed Over52c34.26$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.553652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2912…6817backed Over62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.261855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec47…0124backed Over65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.77580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4148…4397backed Over59c27.26$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.262356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over44c27.07$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1733938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Over46c21.74$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.746758.2%39 W · 28 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x723a…c574backed Over59c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.97475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+34.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under59c17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.037345.2%33 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over72c16.01$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5648658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.