Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53a7bd9cd83d956e56f8c939e0651d6bdf8d1312d33e27c0603b84791fa2fd1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,202 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 56c | 799.17$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.35 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 40c | 624$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.4 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 56c | 326.5$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.7 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 40c | 312.5$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked No | 8c | 308.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe56…593abacked No | 8c | 207.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +128%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked No | 38c | 149.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 61c | 107.1$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked No | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…9af5backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -6.1wins | -0.36per pick | 65cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Yes | 60c | 83.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 46c | 74.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea20…af1bbacked No | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1871…59e6backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa989…3fefbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 61c | 27.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 41c | 25.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Yes | 62c | 21.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc82d…7199backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.