TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,126

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,126 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb5fd…8c6dbacked Over64c10,391$6,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,750.43988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.33per pick56cpaid+63.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under37c4,690$1,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,752.833,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under35c2,612$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.181,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5849…dcf1backed Under34c1,821$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.25911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-51.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under36c1,700$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61256547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under37c1,525$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.372,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6d0…9b55backed Over69c1,449$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.283953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x61bb…5854backed Over56c1,147$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.061861.1%11 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8566…c626backed Under32c1,032$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.142236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-31.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b8d…6d3bbacked Over60c923.33$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.33850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under33c923.29$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.698764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Under36c880$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.83748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6d1…62eabacked Under37c823.74$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.765145.1%23 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Under32c821.58$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.427532%24 W · 51 L-0.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Over68c804.76$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.526558.5%38 W · 27 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+73.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x49ca…5944backed Over63c799.75$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.759067.8%61 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under32c669.47$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.2334144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under34c657$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.7615244.1%67 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over67c537.31$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.3122747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under29c519.94$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.291,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Over68c500$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1604360.5%26 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1c8…023abacked Over55c454.55$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.551675%12 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+43.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over68c445.59$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.5918759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under32c438.18$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.2249647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddd5…ec9ebacked Under50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-58.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20010552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Under36c376.32$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.488252.4%43 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under36c371.32$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.6748146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over69c289.86$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.8618958.2%110 W · 79 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Under36c277$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.231747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+44.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under36c258.74$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8963645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9544…790dbacked Over64c235$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.611540.9%47 W · 68 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under34c191.02$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1833938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x862a…d26bbacked Over66c171.5$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.311338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over68c153.55$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.1422047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf800…bdbabacked Under35c150$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.511543.5%50 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaad…c739backed Over68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.062259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7517…d84abacked Under36c145$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2156…1cafbacked Under37c144$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d30…077dbacked Over73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.994143.9%18 W · 23 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under17c133.58$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1249143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47a3…d0f5backed Under37c125$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba9…0175backed Under36c117.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ede…12c4backed Under37c115$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cc…a74bbacked Under36c115$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e1d…293ebacked Under14c110.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a81…a86bbacked Over66c106.36$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.368366.3%55 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x576c…f218backed Over64c101.53$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.556861.8%42 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x850b…5493backed Under36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3638845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4edd…b1a1backed Under33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339861.2%60 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0189…cab8backed Over67c98.51$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.513167.7%21 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Under36c96.22$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.647247.2%34 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Under36c90.6$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6225850.4%130 W · 128 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over58c85$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.734655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6882…6f08backed Over68c75.21$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.073464.7%22 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf2d…8452backed Under41c73.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301540%6 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+120.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under31c72.46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4669851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c8b…5c65backed Over64c64$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Over65c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2112843%55 W · 73 L-9.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed Over68c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.22356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58f3…14bebacked Over64c58$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Under34c57.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.462452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb083…d6a5backed Over68c55.59$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf370…b607backed Over63c55$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under38c53.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0730647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1b14…02d7backed Over64c51$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed Under26c51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.261729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Under37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.514539.3%57 W · 88 L-9.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb062…4e72backed Over64c45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe758…cb71backed Over63c43.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under40c42.19$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.811,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4647…a7f2backed Over63c41$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x780a…5530backed Over64c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x186b…4b16backed Under38c38.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xffe7…471dbacked Over68c36.91$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9113066.9%87 W · 43 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6556…7267backed Over64c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x645e…e3dabacked Over64c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf15…bc03backed Under39c34.62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.643652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Under33c34.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2514254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fc0…8f18backed Under36c31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.03837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.738151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bb2…9e4ebacked Over66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0ddb…50c3backed Over64c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5e…5b37backed Over64c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc940…75f0backed Over64c29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d5e…1de0backed Over64c29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ee0…9d32backed Over64c29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fe0…7e78backed Over63c28.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.57250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa66f…f5a3backed Under36c28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0814942.3%63 W · 86 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc723…7156backed Under36c28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over70c27.28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.187463.5%47 W · 27 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x109c…2718backed Over63c27$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x858e…a4abbacked Over56c26.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.795954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39b2…4d87backed Over64c26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6078…1c7fbacked Over64c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5976…d78ebacked Over63c22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x198a…3c40backed Over64c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.68660.5%52 W · 34 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18aa…3264backed Over64c18.52$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.