Europa Conference League · resolved market
Lincoln Red Imps FC vs. Larne FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd92e21f41c03d9011b524552e5a5b66ff198ac2874156d5cf10e2253d7b27c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 20c | 886.03$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.92 | 1,611 | 38.8%625 W · 986 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 73c | 566.82$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.67 | 2,478 | 33.9%840 W · 1,638 L | -95.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 4c | 557.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 149 | 31.5%47 W · 102 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 57c | 520.73$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.19 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 40c | 226.82$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.72 | 1,037 | 46.1%478 W · 559 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 57c | 205.08$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.58 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 24c | 182.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 31c | 176.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 771 | 41.8%322 W · 449 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 45c | 142.78$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 43c | 129.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 920 | 50.9%468 W · 452 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 20c | 114$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 26c | 88.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4b…5bedbacked Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 45c | 57.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 136 | 50.7%69 W · 67 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c8…7f69backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Over | 44c | 39.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 53c | 34.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 44c | 27.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 56c | 27.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 371 | 46.4%172 W · 199 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Over | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70a0…2dc3backed Over | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 43c | 25.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 241 | 51%123 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 23.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 256 | 41%105 W · 151 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lincoln Red Imps FC vs. Larne FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Lincoln Red Imps FC vs. Larne FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Lincoln Red Imps FC vs. Larne FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Lincoln Red Imps FC vs. Larne FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Lincoln Red Imps FC vs. Larne FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Lincoln Red Imps FC vs. Larne FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Lincoln Red Imps FC vs. Larne FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Lincoln Red Imps FC vs. Larne FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Larne FC (-1.5)Larne FC won
- Spread: Larne FC (-2.5)Lincoln Red Imps FC won
- Spread: Lincoln Red Imps FC (-1.5)Larne FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.