MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdb6c499e4f2e5dc498418f857631ef220f75c2e870842641252055db4bc0fd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 28c | 8,292$2,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,308.03 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 57c | 5,311$3,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,047.1 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…ce9bbacked Over | 45c | 3,869$1,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,122.5 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 2,260$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.14 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 79c | 1,757$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.48 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 19c | 1,707$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.94 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Under | 4c | 899.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 36c | 836.4$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.82 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 786.1$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.91 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 42c | 398.53$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.08 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 36c | 330.03$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.19 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…ae0ebacked Under | 48c | 322.92$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…7ddfbacked Over | 46c | 302.17$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 18c | 240$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 18c | 117$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 33c | 114$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.38 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 28c | 98.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…1d3ebacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…78cfbacked Over | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 17c | 81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 18c | 76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 22c | 56.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 43c | 34.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93dd…2f33backed Over | 71c | 19.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 80c | 13.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 3.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.