MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf02d65d5d93d94a54d2080feaa63b86fb41c7a76a1d493bc6fadf9241b153cb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Seattle Mariners, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 74c | 3,805$2,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 2,828$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.69 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 2,448$1,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.09 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 20c | 2,069$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.9 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 1,046$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.66 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 1,042$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.24 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Seattle Mariners | 15c | 1,000$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.09 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Seattle Mariners | 24c | 815.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.59 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 625$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x886f…aa8fbacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 490.01$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.2 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 420$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.61 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 399.98$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 341.59$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.8 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Seattle Mariners | 49c | 286.45$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.36 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Seattle Mariners | 13c | 217.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 48c | 216.17$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.45 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Seattle Mariners | 31c | 165$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Seattle Mariners | 29c | 82.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Seattle Mariners | 23c | 73.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners | 46c | 65.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Seattle Mariners | 34c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 56.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Seattle Mariners | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Seattle Mariners | 41c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 41.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 35.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 28.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 26.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 18.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 3.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.