MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3ee2ed3bf1eace3268ac6a71cc68845c6c3c8370ed235d8873ca9cb8f31dd2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 34c | 6,524$2,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,229.9 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 4,906$2,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,924.08 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 65c | 3,171$2,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.13 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 46c | 1,112$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.09 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 1,029$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.87 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 48c | 941.26$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.46 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 46c | 800$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 55c | 556.43$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.55 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 34c | 503.32$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.81 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…1bc0backed Over | 36c | 425.14$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.21 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 69c | 408$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.48 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 39c | 367.5$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.79 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 67c | 355.78$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.64 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 24c | 339.43$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…ae0ebacked Under | 44c | 293.16$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.16 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76f4…567dbacked Over | 36c | 292.47$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Over | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 56c | 245.5$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.02 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 42c | 231$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.98 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…8091backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 76c | 194.42$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd6…81f6backed Over | 57c | 192.39$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.04 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Over | 39c | 165$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 162.14$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.02 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 70c | 161.64$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 52c | 158.65$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.15 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 48c | 156$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 70c | 143.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 60c | 123.79$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 28c | 101.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 72c | 99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 41c | 92.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b13…37dbbacked Under | 55c | 91.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 31c | 85.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Over | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 48c | 81.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 30c | 72.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.01 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 31c | 71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Over | 33c | 67.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90da…7c0cbacked Under | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 56c | 58.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 23c | 49.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 55c | 47.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Over | 45c | 33.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 3.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.