MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x254cbca55e0196c5d131895061935067c015566d4531d12f7658be0003aea3aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $162,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 47c | 113,345$53,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,272.07 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d8…5213backed Under | 53c | 107,975$57,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,748.03 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +9.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 10,673$5,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,122.64 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Over | 48c | 10,417$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 241 | 46.1%111 W · 130 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,700 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 48c | 9,000$4,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,320 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 76c | 6,443$4,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,546.29 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 23c | 5,869$1,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375.7 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 52c | 5,788$3,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,755.02 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 53c | 5,265$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,464.7 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 2,600$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.86 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 48c | 2,183$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.61 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Over | 48c | 1,910$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.89 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 51c | 1,643$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.2 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fe…f03dbacked Under | 52c | 1,087$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.73 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 53c | 1,025$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.06 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 42c | 907.6$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.95 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 641.21$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.05 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 52c | 628$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.44 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 592.67$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.43 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 502.89$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.24 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 47c | 331.12$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.63 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 21c | 328.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 24c | 317$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 947 | 34.4%326 W · 621 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 43c | 261.05$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.25 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 37c | 256$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.72 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Under | 53c | 240$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.8 | 228 | 49.1%112 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 21c | 199.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 573 | 46.9%269 W · 304 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Over | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 33c | 147.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 20c | 100.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…4fb1backed Under | 53c | 94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 147 | 59.9%88 W · 59 L | +14.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…8d0bbacked Over | 24c | 60.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 67c | 51.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 44c | 50.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…bb4ebacked Under | 53c | 43.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 53c | 42.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 41.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Under | 50c | 37.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Under | 53c | 33.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 69c | 32.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 78c | 32.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 49c | 27.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 43c | 25.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Over | 49c | 24.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…7f34backed Under | 53c | 22.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a311backed Under | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 61c | 17.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 483 | 43.3%209 W · 274 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 3.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.