Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdbfd0a6e12be95b882ef38f0cdd9fe642c30f88598df4961161d0c8a09a0635
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- summer bearof Habibis, summer bear
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Habibis | 32c | 1,338$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.48 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Habibis | 42c | 1,090$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.38 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked summer bear | 62c | 709.99$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a1…2974backed Habibis | 8c | 679.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Habibis | 37c | 673.25$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Habibis | 19c | 516.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.34 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfed…9d03backed summer bear | 67c | 450.26$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed summer bear | 69c | 433.83$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.83 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed Habibis | 40c | 385.14$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.06 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed summer bear | 57c | 300$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…8a03backed Habibis | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Habibis | 29c | 298.34$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.43 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Habibis | 30c | 236.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Habibis | 30c | 215$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed summer bear | 59c | 200$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed Habibis | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked summer bear | 53c | 200$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.85 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed summer bear | 54c | 193.5$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.52 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Habibis | 17c | 162$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dba…6929backed summer bear | 74c | 161.41$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked summer bear | 61c | 155.12$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed Habibis | 33c | 155$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 131 | 45%59 W · 72 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Habibis | 26c | 147.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ac…7deebacked summer bear | 76c | 135.74$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed Habibis | 42c | 134.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Habibis | 28c | 131.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51be…12c2backed summer bear | 80c | 125.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 192 | 51%98 W · 94 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Habibis | 27c | 115.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Habibis | 20c | 112.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Habibis | 30c | 105.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Habibis | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Habibis | 29c | 97.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked summer bear | 60c | 94.41$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked summer bear | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…c3cabacked Habibis | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 441 | 49.4%218 W · 223 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed summer bear | 68c | 79.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 276 | 36.2%100 W · 176 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed summer bear | 66c | 76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked summer bear | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912e…0eaebacked Habibis | 30c | 74.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Habibis | 24c | 70.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed summer bear | 72c | 65.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 137 | 64.2%88 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed summer bear | 53c | 57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked summer bear | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd2…87f4backed summer bear | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +13.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…1b41backed summer bear | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bd…226cbacked summer bear | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked summer bear | 62c | 54.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked summer bear | 58c | 51.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked summer bear | 59c | 49.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4e…8e54backed Habibis | 32c | 31.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 77.8%49 W · 14 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…084cbacked summer bear | 66c | 29.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed summer bear | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked summer bear | 66c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group BHabibis won
- Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear - Game 2 WinnerHabibis won
- Game Handicap: SB (-1.5) vs Habibis (+1.5)Habibis won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.