TailMyPicks
Market

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group B

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Habibisof Habibis, summer bear
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,944
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$105,294

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,944 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6373…a0b7backed Habibis54c12,486$6,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,786.714825%37 W · 111 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-2.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ba3…9a44backed summer bear1c2,250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d0…95babacked Habibis28c2,056$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,472.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+107.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Habibis67c1,666$1,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.3648057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed summer bear15c1,609$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.8869132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked summer bear47c1,523$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.3889938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Habibis66c1,480$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.431,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked summer bear72c1,442$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.4589238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed summer bear68c1,187$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.431,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Habibis39c1,026$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.2896645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfed…9d03backed summer bear64c864.13$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+38.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81c3…d67dbacked Habibis57c845.38$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.017045.7%32 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Habibis32c835.64$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.6993546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked summer bear59c831.55$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.31,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed Habibis34c817.95$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.148054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed summer bear23c802.13$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.657044.3%31 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1f19…f012backed summer bear65c760.56$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.553956.4%22 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked Habibis36c747.42$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.647935.4%28 W · 51 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-6.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked summer bear72c728.5$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.2432756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed summer bear61c690.35$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.1416539.4%65 W · 100 L-0.6wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Habibis23c669.4$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.741,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26bd…e53bbacked Habibis24c620.86$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.864540%18 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1816…2ee6backed Habibis45c553.54$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.7637549.3%185 W · 190 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked summer bear71c547.4$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.3668345.8%313 W · 370 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked summer bear62c527$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.1844049.3%217 W · 223 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed summer bear64c522.48$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.6658943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed summer bear57c520.91$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.9220442.2%86 W · 118 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed Habibis33c498.98$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.3215639.1%61 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed summer bear76c463.26$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.7919249%94 W · 98 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked summer bear49c461.06$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.2153538.5%206 W · 329 L-26.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Habibis27c445.61$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.2262841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed summer bear70c444.54$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.145735.1%20 W · 37 L-5.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-38.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xef3a…1eb3backed Habibis43c443.25$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.43250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Habibis23c403.27$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.752,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a1…d6ecbacked summer bear71c399.99$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.9914452.1%75 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe50e…45c5backed summer bear29c399.99$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.9910662.3%66 W · 40 L+8.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Habibis23c397.68$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.751,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed Habibis16c377.66$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.6619251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Habibis28c375$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.3830844.8%138 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked summer bear70c371.47$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.7413647.1%64 W · 72 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked summer bear74c353.37$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.4730146.2%139 W · 162 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Habibis26c335.01$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.2922240.1%89 W · 133 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9bb6…5154backed summer bear66c325.79$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.232556%14 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…13dabacked Habibis33c300$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2011637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed summer bear67c299.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9951364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43bc…fcdfbacked summer bear75c267.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked summer bear65c259.05$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.9356945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dea…e294backed Habibis34c245$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.77546.7%35 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Habibis39c243.14$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.9423736.7%87 W · 150 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…d03fbacked summer bear71c242.15$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.9517965.4%117 W · 62 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e45…4b13backed summer bear69c238.93$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16513975.5%105 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a30…34b1backed summer bear67c235.72$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.21275%9 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac39…95c7backed Habibis41c234.69$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.541338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x952a…bdc8backed Habibis75c225.22$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.618469%58 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dba…6929backed summer bear75c221.81$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.796341.3%26 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Habibis32c215$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.551,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Habibis14c208.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.6341455.6%230 W · 184 L+41.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x15d1…2f08backed Habibis13c207.31$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.886844.1%30 W · 38 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Habibis33c204$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.6843738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0785…3540backed summer bear61c200$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1224663%29 W · 17 L+10.3wins+0.22per pick41cpaid+63.9%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xc564…e89dbacked summer bear60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1209242.4%39 W · 53 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ccb…6cb3backed summer bear61c200$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1221450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+40.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04a1…d6e6backed Habibis34c199.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.992254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed summer bear29c199.04$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.44910.2%5 W · 44 L-6.9wins-0.14per pick24cpaid-69.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa64f…bcf8backed summer bear77c198.76$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.051172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked summer bear67c191.06$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.4661449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8041…e69abacked Habibis26c172.37$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+283.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked summer bear64c168.99$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1158746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed summer bear60c166.89$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6841632.7%136 W · 280 L-37.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-41.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed Habibis33c166.86$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.4313145%59 W · 72 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Habibis19c162$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13253844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aa4…236cbacked summer bear68c160$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.41250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8569…2267backed Habibis74c159.75$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.261957.9%11 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick67cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed summer bear75c156$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.1764547.8%308 W · 337 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked summer bear61c154.03$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.326445.1%119 W · 145 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f9b…bc2fbacked summer bear64c149.99$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.56762.7%42 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28f5…2035backed summer bear70c149.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10533265.4%217 W · 115 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d33…28f8backed Habibis31c142.52$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.791030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Habibis31c133.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.451,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad2b…2a8ebacked summer bear61c133.01$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.142245.5%10 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+22.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0fe0…fb5bbacked summer bear67c128.4$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869964.6%64 W · 35 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Habibis36c122.82$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.0631251.3%160 W · 152 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed Habibis31c116$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.0412250%61 W · 61 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a4b…a0c7backed summer bear66c115$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.45742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b0c…d43abacked Habibis31c112.1$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.1421253.8%114 W · 98 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1617…d790backed Habibis21c111.22$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.491428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6707…d4d8backed summer bear71c110.28$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7813764.2%88 W · 49 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Habibis18c109.94$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.6415342.5%65 W · 88 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc869…bc8dbacked Habibis23c104.42$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.0437441.2%154 W · 220 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Habibis25c103$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.2531248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb155…ca84backed summer bear59c101$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.476529.2%19 W · 46 L-7.0wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-45.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2ffa…7710backed Habibis33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673946.2%18 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a53…71a3backed summer bear72c97.62$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7018562.7%116 W · 69 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80f5…daa2backed summer bear71c91.93$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651526.7%4 W · 11 L-4.2wins-0.28per pick54cpaid-58.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xe244…bc40backed summer bear62c91.68$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.84425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Habibis32c90.14$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.965647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed Habibis22c85.37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.69954.5%54 W · 45 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…8e7ebacked summer bear56c85.08$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6433854.1%183 W · 155 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…5696backed Habibis77c80.94$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.621989.5%17 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick72cpaid+25.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x45e3…de14backed Habibis44c77.83$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.783775.7%28 W · 9 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.