Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9305cafe15072558ba9b7e33fbb879d49bb57a3aa1c85ba5eab7595770e764a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Habibisof Habibis, summer bear
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84d0…95babacked Habibis | 37c | 1,800$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +107.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Habibis | 37c | 1,484$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.35 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed summer bear | 55c | 1,272$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…f081backed summer bear | 34c | 1,209$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.92 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd56b…342dbacked summer bear | 13c | 1,133$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.76 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Habibis | 38c | 949.23$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.86 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed summer bear | 63c | 793.65$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed summer bear | 44c | 748.76$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.36 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Habibis | 63c | 735.91$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.98 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed summer bear | 40c | 627.92$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked summer bear | 63c | 600$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked summer bear | 30c | 600$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.7 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef3a…1eb3backed summer bear | 63c | 514.06$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed summer bear | 49c | 489$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.28 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfed…9d03backed Habibis | 39c | 476.83$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dba…6929backed Habibis | 36c | 448$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.79 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked summer bear | 43c | 330.45$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed summer bear | 58c | 304.37$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed summer bear | 48c | 264.11$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.06 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba46…6ac5backed Habibis | 77c | 259.42$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 52 | 75%39 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked summer bear | 29c | 259.33$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked Habibis | 45c | 253.9$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.71 | 359 | 60.4%217 W · 142 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked summer bear | 38c | 245.82$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.08 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…2ee6backed summer bear | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 375 | 49.3%185 W · 190 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b8…82c1backed summer bear | 66c | 232$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked summer bear | 45c | 179.62$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.03 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked summer bear | 57c | 171.13$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.25 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51be…12c2backed Habibis | 59c | 170.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.84 | 192 | 51%98 W · 94 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed summer bear | 54c | 161.85$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.05 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd676…104cbacked summer bear | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked summer bear | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9b…bc2fbacked summer bear | 70c | 131.72$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked summer bear | 44c | 126.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…2035backed Habibis | 66c | 110.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 332 | 65.4%217 W · 115 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked summer bear | 57c | 109.63$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…084cbacked Habibis | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed summer bear | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 106 | 62.3%66 W · 40 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked summer bear | 46c | 97.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked summer bear | 50c | 96.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 440 | 49.3%217 W · 223 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…d03fbacked summer bear | 69c | 96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 179 | 65.4%117 W · 62 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe0…fb5bbacked summer bear | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Habibis | 56c | 91.56$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd360…2eabbacked Habibis | 40c | 87.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Habibis | 64c | 83.34$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked summer bear | 45c | 83.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed summer bear | 58c | 77.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked summer bear | 41c | 71.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked summer bear | 51c | 71.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked summer bear | 54c | 65.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Habibis | 44c | 60.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe489…8804backed summer bear | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Habibis | 54c | 39.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe224…4907backed summer bear | 68c | 39.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15d9…6b54backed summer bear | 65c | 36.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4e…8e54backed Habibis | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 63 | 77.8%49 W · 14 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed summer bear | 42c | 32.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed summer bear | 44c | 32.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed summer bear | 57c | 32.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 282 | 52.1%147 W · 135 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked summer bear | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked summer bear | 58c | 30.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69b7…ae1dbacked summer bear | 62c | 27.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 74 | 71.6%53 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed summer bear | 60c | 25.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Habibis | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked summer bear | 59c | 20.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…d26dbacked summer bear | 64c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff2…2a26backed summer bear | 66c | 16.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 52cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group BHabibis won
- Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear - Game 1 Winnersummer bear won
- Game Handicap: SB (-1.5) vs Habibis (+1.5)Habibis won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.